Taiwan Security Monitor

Taiwan Affairs Office: We hope the Taiwan side will follow public opinion and lift the unreasonable restrictions on cross-strait air transport as soon as possible.

At the Feb. 11 Taiwan Affairs Office press briefing, a reporter asked: Due to interference by the DPP authorities, cross-strait air routes have not yet fully returned to normal, seriously affecting travel between people on both sides. As compatriots on both sides strongly hope for the full resumption of all direct-flight routes and destinations, Taiwanโ€™s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has claimed that โ€œwithout group-tour sources, airlines lose money on every flight, so the incentive isnโ€™t great.โ€ What is your comment?

TAO spokesperson Zhu Fenglian replied: Cross-strait direct air links have greatly facilitated travel between people on both sides and have played an important role in enhancing the well-being of compatriots on both sides. At present, due to interference by the DPP authorities, cross-strait routes have not fully returned to normal. Passenger services currently operate from 14 mainland cities, with more than 300 cross-strait passenger flights per week. Compared with before 2020โ€”when there were 61 mainland destinations and up to a peak of 890 passenger flights per weekโ€”there remains a significant gap, which has seriously affected cross-strait travel. Public calls for the full resumption of all direct-flight destinations are very strong.

Zhu noted: The mainland side has consistently upheld the concept that โ€œcompatriots on both sides are one family,โ€ actively promoting cross-strait tourism exchanges and cooperation; our goodwill and sincerity are evident to all. In 2023, we announced the resumption of receiving group tours by Taiwan residents to the mainland; in 2024, we resumed allowing Fujian residents to travel to Kinmen and Matsu; in 2025, we announced the resumption of group tours from Fujian and Shanghai to Taiwan; and in early 2026, we again announced that we would resume allowing Shanghai residents to travel to Kinmen and Matsu. Yet the DPP authorities have not responded positivelyโ€”on the contrary, they have repeatedly obstructed and restricted cross-strait tourism and exchanges across various fields, setting up hurdles and barriers. The crux of the current cross-strait tourism issue, and the obstacles to its resolution, lie entirely in interference and obstruction by the DPP authorities.

Zhu added: Whether cross-strait routes have a passenger base is something the data will show. According to statistics, in 2025 more than 5.78 million passenger trips were made across the Strait on direct passenger flights, and the average load factor on cross-strait routes reached 80%โ€”fully reflecting strong demand for direct cross-strait flights. We hope the Taiwan side will follow public opinion and lift the unreasonable restrictions on cross-strait air transport as soon as possible, allowing airlines on both sides to arrange flight schedules independently in accordance with market demand. Whether there is demand for flights should be decided by the market. The DPP authorities can simply loosen the restrictionsโ€”then they will know once they try.

Taiwan Affairs Office: We warmly welcome more aspiring Taiwanese students to apply to mainland universities.

At the Feb. 11 Taiwan Affairs Office press briefing, a reporter asked: Enrollment work will soon begin for (1) mainland regular higher-education institutions admitting Taiwan high school graduates based on Taiwanโ€™s General Scholastic Ability Test (GSAT) scores, and (2) the joint admissions program through which regular higher-education institutions recruit overseas Chinese and students from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, among other channels. Please introduce the relevant arrangements.

TAO spokesperson Zhu Fenglian replied: It is understood that mainland universitiesโ€™ recruitment of Taiwan students will begin in succession in March. Taiwan students who hold a Mainland Travel Permit for Taiwan Residents and valid ID proving residence in Taiwan, or a Taiwan Resident Residence Permit, and who possess the required prior academic qualifications, may enroll in mainland universities through four pathways:

First, sit for the joint admissions exam for overseas Chinese and students from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan to apply to 460 mainland universities (the โ€œNational Joint Admissions Examโ€). Applicants may register online via the โ€œNational Joint Admissions Management System (candidate portal)โ€ from March 1 to 15, and complete registration confirmation from March 11 to 31.

Second, apply to 451 mainland universities using Taiwan GSAT scores (the โ€œGSAT-based admissionsโ€). Applicants whose GSAT score in any one of the Chinese, mathematics, or English subjects reaches at least the โ€œstandardโ€ level (ๅ‡ๆ ‡็บง) may apply via the โ€œMainland (Motherland) regular higher-education institutions admitting Taiwan high school graduates based on Taiwan GSAT scoresโ€ system from March 1 to 31.

Third, sit for the โ€œtwo-university joint admissionsโ€ exam for Jinan University and Huaqiao University; details are available in the admissions brochures posted on the two universitiesโ€™ official websites.

Fourth, apply to 48 universities in Fujian via routes including Taiwanโ€™s technical/vocational unified test (็ปŸๆต‹), subject-based tests (ๅˆ†็ง‘ๆต‹้ชŒ), and separate admissions exams specifically oriented toward Taiwan; for specific requirements, please consult the โ€œMainland (Motherland) Higher Education Admissions Information Network for Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwanโ€ and the official websites of the universities concerned.

Zhu added: We warmly welcome more aspiring Taiwanese students to apply to mainland universities, to study alongside mainland students and grow together. We will also continue to provide greater convenience and services for Taiwan students coming to the mainland to pursue further study, helping more Taiwan students realize their life dreams on the mainland.

Taiwan Affairs Office: Lai Ching-teโ€™s remarks expose his โ€œTaiwan independenceโ€ nature as a โ€œsaboteur of cross-strait peaceโ€ and a โ€œmaker of crises in the Taiwan Strait.โ€

At the Feb. 11 Taiwan Affairs Office press briefing, a reporter asked: Lai Ching-te recently said that โ€œfour invariantsโ€ should be maintained in U.S.โ€“Chinaโ€“Taiwan trilateral relations. KMT Vice Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen said the international landscape has already changed, yet Lai still clings to the โ€œnew two-states theoryโ€ and โ€œwants to go to war with the mainland,โ€ and that this strategy is completely wrong. What is your comment?

TAO spokesperson Zhu Fenglian replied: Lai Ching-teโ€™s remarks completely expose his sinister intentions of โ€œseeking independence by relying on the United Statesโ€ and โ€œseeking independence by relying on external forces,โ€ as well as his โ€œTaiwan independenceโ€ nature as a โ€œsaboteur of cross-strait peaceโ€ and a โ€œmaker of crises in the Taiwan Strait.โ€ All of the history, facts, and legal basis regarding Taiwan prove that Taiwan is Chinaโ€™s Taiwan and an inalienable part of Chinaโ€™s territory. The Taiwan question is purely Chinaโ€™s internal affair and brooks no external interference. No matter how bottomlessly the Lai Ching-te authorities flatter and curry favor with the United States, or how hard they try to concoct the lie that the United States โ€œsupports Taiwan,โ€ they cannot change the fact that Taiwan is part of China, nor can they shake the basic international pattern of the international communityโ€™s adherence to the one-China principle. We have firm will, strong resolve, and powerful capabilities to smash all โ€œTaiwan independenceโ€ separatist acts and external interference, and to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Taiwan Affairs Office: We will further implement and refine policy measures that benefit Taiwanโ€™s farmers and Taiwan-funded businesses, and create better conditions for Taiwanโ€™s farmers and enterprises to come to the mainland to develop.

At the Feb. 11 Taiwan Affairs Office press briefing, a reporter asked: On Feb. 10, the results of the 2025 โ€œSannongโ€ (Agriculture, Rural Areas, and Farmers) Person-of-the-Year selection and promotion campaign were officially announced. Taiwan compatriot Guo Yangfu was selected as a 2025 โ€œSannongโ€ Person of the Year. What is your comment?

TAO spokesperson Zhu Fenglian replied: It is understood that the 2025 โ€œSannongโ€ Person-of-the-Year campaign took โ€œLooking Ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan Period, Striving on a New Journeyโ€ as its theme, and selected 12 annual โ€œSannongโ€ figures and one honored team. Taiwan compatriot Guo Yangfu, who has started a business and developed his career in Ezhou, Hubei, was recommended and selected, becoming the third Taiwan compatriot to receive this honor in the 20 years since the campaign began. This is another concrete measure to implement equal treatment for Taiwan compatriots and Taiwan farmers and to deepen cross-strait integrated development. We will further implement and refine policy measures that benefit Taiwan farmers and Taiwan-funded businesses, and create better conditions for Taiwan farmers and enterprises to come to the mainland to develop. We hope more Taiwan compatriots will actively participate in the mainlandโ€™s high-quality development and add new stories to the shared effort of compatriots on both sides of the Strait to realize the โ€œChinese Dream.โ€

Visualization: New Philippine Navy Monitoring Detatchment at Tubbahta Reef

Authors: Chris Dayton & Ethan Connell


The Philippine Navyโ€™s Western Naval Command will stand up a Naval Monitoring Detachment at Tubbataha Reefs Natural Park, with the stated goal of improving patrol, surveillance, and rapid-response coverage of Chinese naval activity in the Sulu Sea, while also supporting the reef’s protection against illegal activity. Above is our visualization of the detachment’s proposed location:

Weekly Security Review: 2/9/26

Author: Jaime Ocon


Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, Washington eyes new air defense upgrades for Taiwan, conscripts gear up for enhanced training, talks of a joint U.S.-Taiwan firepower center heat up, and the Navyโ€™s modernization plan raises a big question: How many ships are too many?

FT: U.S. Set to Approve Huge Air Defense Package to Taiwan

A report on Friday, 6 February, from the Financial Times revealed that the U.S. is preparing a set of four new arms packages for Taiwan, including Patriot missiles and launchers, potentially worth up to $20 billion. The prospective deal is also expected to include additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), as well as two other unknown sales. This comes after the U.S. already approved a US$11 billion arms package, but funding for that deal (part of a special defense budget) is currently stalled in the Legislative Yuan by opposition parties. All eyes are now on the Trump administration and whether or not the proposed sale will be announced to Congress before or after Trumpโ€™s trip to China in April. Beijing has warned that any sort of arms deal could derail President Donald Trumpโ€™s planned state visit, with Chinese President Xi Jinping personally urging the U.S. to handle Taiwan arms sales โ€œwith prudence.โ€

While more willingness from the U.S. to provide defense equipment to Taiwan is great for the countryโ€™s defense, it could potentially put Taipei in a difficult position if it is unable to pay on time or at all. Senators Jim Risch (R-ID) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) are among a handful of U.S. lawmakers who have criticised the stalled budget and are putting pressure on Taiwanโ€™s political parties to cooperate and fund the islandโ€™s security. The Legislative Yuan, meanwhile,  is on winter break until the end of February. 

Taiwan Announces Reorganization of Conscripts Units and Training 

Taiwanโ€™s Executive Yuan (EY) released a policy report with a detailed overview of major defense reforms, including a change to conscript training. According to the report, starting this year, conscripts will not only be reorganized into battalion-level units but also grouped into combined-arms brigades when conducting the annual Lien Yung live-fire exercise. One of the main goals for the military is to โ€œenhance joint counter-force strike capabilities,โ€ which is why conscript units will move beyond static defense. Traditionally, once conscripts completed basic training, they would serve as support for the main volunteer force, helping to provide logistics. They will now train alongside main combat units equipped with systems like new M1A2T Abrams tanks and Clouded Leopard infantry fighting vehicles. A number of brigades are planned, which include: 

  • 109th Infantry Brigade (่™Ž่บ้ƒจ้šŠ) โ€“ guarding the Taoyuan Plateau and the northern gateway to Greater Taipei.
  • 249th Infantry Brigade (้พ่™Ž้ƒจ้šŠ) โ€“ defending Zhunanโ€™s beach and the Hsinchu Science Park area.
  • 101st Infantry Brigade (ๅ …ๆฏ…้ƒจ้šŠ) โ€“ securing deep inland areas of Taiwanโ€™s central region.
  • 137th Infantry Brigade (ๅ—ๅจ้ƒจ้šŠ) and 117th Infantry Brigade (ๆตท้ตฌ้ƒจ้šŠ) โ€“ responsible for guarding the cities of Tainan and Kaohsiung.

While the move is a step in the right direction in terms of the planned quality of training, there are several obstacles and potential roadblocks. The main concern is training capacity and feasibility. According to Chieh Chung, a strategic studies professor at Tamkang University, the advanced 13-week base-level field training could only be properly conducted at two large facilities โ€“ Hukou in Hsinchu, northwestern Taiwan, and Baihe in Tainan, southern Taiwan. There is also the concern of a lack of trainers, as without adequate training, this risks labelling units as combat-ready when they might be lacking in quality. 


Rumors of a U.S.-Taiwan Joint Firepower Coordination Center Circulate

Some interesting news came out this week about the possibility of a U.S.-Taiwan Joint Firepower Coordination Center (JFCC). In a span of 2 weeks, Taipei-based United Daily News and the U.S. outlet Defense News have run similar stories claiming that both countries are working to set up a mechanism and procedure to coordinate precision strikes. To be very clear, this has not been confirmed by either side. Taiwanโ€™s MND says details regarding the cooperation center are “inconvenient to disclose,” but confirmed that Taiwan has “institutionalized” and “deepened” cooperation with the U.S. military to enhance its defense capabilities. This is significant for several reasons, but we need to first understand where Taiwan stands in terms of its U.S. defense procurement. 

Taiwanโ€™s military has been trying to stockpile and produce a variety of precision-guided munitions and support equipment to boost its strike and defense capabilities. Military sources say that Taiwan still has more than 1,000 missiles pending delivery, which include PAC-3 MSE, AMRAAMs, the shore-based Harpoon Coastal Defense System (HCDS), and ATACMS. On top of that, if the MND can secure full funding in its supplemental special defense budget, Taiwan can acquire over 200,000 UAVs, 100,000 USVs, and thousands of other domestically produced missiles. 

A major obstacle for Taiwan is creating a robust and capable C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) system. For decades, Taiwan continued to procure expensive โ€œlegacyโ€ platforms that have questionable survivability and largely neglected improved sensor and software capabilities. Taiwan does not have many satellites, and local reporting shows that it has a mediocre grasp of its maritime domain. This is where the JFCC could help fill the gap needed for effective strike operations, with the MND already stating the center โ€œwill be able to effectively coordinate firepower deployment across different service branches, thereby maximizing operational effectivenessโ€. 

According to military sources, the General Staff Headquartersโ€™ Operations and Planning Office (J-3) will be responsible for allocating and managing upcoming assets and has already begun preparatory work to help establish the JFCC. Included in the US$40 billion supplemental budget are plans to invest nearly US$3.1 million to upgrade the Joint Operations Command, Joint Emergency Response, and distributed command centers, with an additional US$316,000 allocated to the Intelligence Division. 

Assuming that the most recent package of HIMARS approved in December 2025 is fulfilled, Taiwan will be the second largest operator of those systems behind the U.S. With local media already teasing possible deployments of the system in the outlying islands of Penghu, and more โ€œfirepowerโ€ units being created, Taiwanโ€™s next challenge will be to upgrade its infrastructure to support this new hardware.

Navy Eager to Start Massive Modernization Program

Taiwan is planning a major naval modernization centered on six new ship programs between roughly 2027 and 2040. Below is a public list of planned vessels with their production schedule and estimated cost.

  • 1 submarine rescue ship (2027โ€“2032, ~NT$13.2bn)
  • 1 next-generation fast combat support ship, Panshih class (2027โ€“2033, ~NT$17.2bn)
  • 5 next-generation light frigates (anti-submarine warfare variant) (2028โ€“2040, ~NT$125bn)
  • 5 next-generation light frigates (air defense variant) (2028โ€“2040, ~NT$125bn)
  • 2 rescue ships (2027โ€“2034, ~NT$21.8bn)
  • 1 additional Yushan-class dock landing ship (2028โ€“2034, ~NT$13.4bn)

The much-anticipated light frigates were scaled down from the original 4,500-ton concept to 2,500 tons and are meant to strengthen badly needed anti-air and anti-submarine capabilities in the face of threats from the Peopleโ€™s Liberation Army Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force. Currently, around 60 percent of Taiwanโ€™s main surface fleet is nearing 30 years old, with some ships passing 50 years in service. This is why the Navy says modernization and phasing out aging platforms should be the countryโ€™s priority. 

However, Taiwan faces a dilemma, as the military needs to decide how it will balance the daily gray-zone pressure brought by Chinese Coast Guard vessels and naval vessels, as well as the worst-case invasion scenario. The ROCN has already started to replace legacy vessels and introduce smaller Tuo Chiangโ€“class โ€œcarrier killersโ€ that rely on โ€œshoot-and-scootโ€ tactics with Hsiung Feng III missiles. Taiwanโ€™s Coast Guard Administration has also made headway in beefing up its fleet with plans unveiled in September 2025 to add 12 new 2,000-ton class cutters and 28 new smaller boats. Some critics argue that investing in unmanned vessels armed with loitering munitions could offer cheaper, more survivable firepower. The MND says that the modernization plan is in line with the countryโ€™s combat needs and threats it faces today. 

Book Review | Americaโ€™s Taiwan Dilemma: Alliesโ€™ Reactions and the Stakes for US Reputation

Author: Michael Hunzeker


The Small Wars Journal reviews America’s Dilemma, written by TSM Director Dr. Michael Hunzeker and Mark Christopher.

Read the full review here.

Visualization: 2026 ROC Reserve Infantry Brigade Reform


Author: Noah Reed


Taiwan’s military, as part of efforts to improve the training and strength of its conscript force, will reportedly organize training alongside volunteer combined arms brigades within five of its reserve infantry brigades. These five brigades will transition from primarily training units to being tasked with defending critical areas, allowing for greater movement by volunteer-based combined arms brigades during wartime.

Taiwan Affairs Office: President Xi Jinpingโ€™s important speeches on Taiwan-related matters provide the fundamental guiding principles for doing Taiwan-related work well.

At the February 5 Taiwan Affairs Office press conference, a reporter asked: On February 4, President Xi Jinping spoke by phone with U.S. President Trump and stressed that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in Chinaโ€“U.S. relations. Taiwan is Chinaโ€™s territory; China must safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and it will never allow Taiwan to be split off. The U.S. side must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence. How does the Taiwan Affairs Office understand this?

TAO spokesperson Chen Binhua responded: President Xi Jinping stressed that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in Chinaโ€“U.S. relations. Taiwan is Chinaโ€™s territory; China must safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and it will never allow Taiwan to be split off. The U.S. side must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence. President Trump said that he attaches importance to Chinaโ€™s concerns on the Taiwan question, is willing to maintain communication with China, and will keep Chinaโ€“U.S. relations sound and stable during his term in office. President Xi Jinpingโ€™s important remarks have clarified Chinaโ€™s solemn position on the Taiwan question and provide the fundamental guiding principles for us to do Taiwan-related work well.

Taiwan is Chinaโ€™s territory; the Taiwan question is the core of Chinaโ€™s core interests and the first red line in Chinaโ€“U.S. relations that must not be crossed. The DPP authorities have repeatedly attempted to โ€œseek independence by relying on external forcesโ€ and โ€œseek independence by military means,โ€ leading to tension and turbulence in the Taiwan Strait situation. The U.S. side should abide by the one-China principle and the three Chinaโ€“U.S. joint communiquรฉs, and handle the Taiwan question with the utmost prudence.

Taiwan Affairs Office: We will continue to maintain positive interaction with the Chinese Kuomintang on the basis of a shared political foundation.

At the February 5 Taiwan Affairs Office press conference, a reporter asked: The KMTโ€“CCP think tank forum themed โ€œProspects for Cross-Strait Exchanges and Cooperationโ€ was held in Beijing on February 3 and has attracted high attention in public opinion on both sides of the Strait. The forum announced that the KMT and the CCP have, after ten years, resumed institutionalized exchanges, and reached 15 common understandings on strengthening exchanges and cooperation in areas including cross-strait tourism, industry, the environment, and sustainable development. How does the spokesperson evaluate the significance of holding the forum and the results achieved?

TAO spokesperson Chen Binhua responded: General Secretary Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message last October to Ms. Zheng Li-wen on her election as chairperson of the Chinese Kuomintang, pointing the way for the future development of KMTโ€“CCP relations and cross-strait relations. Chairperson Zheng Li-wen replied by telegram at the earliest opportunity. Holding the KMTโ€“CCP think tank forum is a concrete measure to implement the spirit of the congratulatory telegram and reply between the two party leaders.

The forum focused on industrial development and peopleโ€™s livelihoods and well-being, and put forward a series of specific recommendations, reflecting the sense of responsibility borne by the two parties to seek peace for the Taiwan Strait, well-being for compatriots, and rejuvenation for the nation. The resumption of institutionalized exchanges between the two parties after a ten-year interval is of major significance, with notable results. Going forward, we will continue, together with the Chinese Kuomintang, on the shared political foundation of upholding the โ€œ1992 Consensusโ€ and opposing โ€œTaiwan independence,โ€ to strengthen exchanges and contacts, maintain positive interaction, jointly promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, and work hand in hand to create the great rejuvenation of the nation.