Author: Jaime Ocon

Authors: Jaime Ocon & Danielle Kremer

Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, Taipei holds civil defense drills, China’s Liaoning passes through the Taiwan Strait, and Japan sends a destroyer through the strait ahead of Balikatan. 

Taiwan Holds Civil Defense Drills Alongside Computerized Han Kuang Exercise

Taiwan recently held a civil defense drill aimed at improving the island’s broader wartime preparedness. The drill, which was conducted alongside the Han Kuang 42 computer-simulated wargames, was the first ever run by the government’s Central Joint Emergency Operations Center. Officials say that the drill was designed to test how different departments would coordinate during a crisis, with the aim of improving emergency response and command-system performance. The exercises were observed by American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Raymond Greene, Interior Minister Liu Shyh-fang, and National Security Council Deputy Secretary-General Lin Fei-fan. All three officials underscored the importance of a whole-of-society resilience, with Greene adding that this was “a significant step forward” for Taiwan’s resilience efforts. Taiwan’s national security officials have said the exercises are meant to unify central and local government, civilian forces, hospitals, shelters, transport systems, and communications networks.  The civil defense drills will end on Tuesday, April 21. 

The urban resilience exercises come as Taiwan is in the middle of computer-simulated wargames, and as it prepares for live-fire drills in July and August. Observers at the civil defense drill say Taiwan is no longer treating civil defense as a separate or symbolic effort, but as a core part of deterrence and wartime endurance. Many lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have tried to shape civil defense reforms to be seen not only as domestic policy, but as part of a wider effort to convince outsiders that the island can absorb pressure and continue functioning under threat.

Earlier last week, the South China Morning Post ran a story criticizing Taiwan’s civil defense preparedness, citing scholars who say Taiwan is lagging behind in its military modernization. They say recent wargames held at National Chengchi University show this widening “resilience gap” could lead to public panic during a crisis. The simulation modelled a scenario in 2030 where global alliances shift, and Taiwan faces severe energy and social disruptions from a potential Chinese blockade. Results from the two-day event show Taiwan has focused heavily on military hardware but neglected social and critical infrastructure resilience, calling existing drills like the annual Wan An air raid exercise “too romantic” and fragmented for real threats. 

China’s Liaoning Aircraft Passes Through Taiwan Strait

China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier (CV-16) passed through the Taiwan Strait on April 20, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND). The MND said it monitored the ship closely throughout the transit and released an image showing carrier-based fighters and helicopters on the flight deck. Officials and local media are emphasizing the visibility of the carrier’s full air wing as a sign of normalized activity. 

At the same time, in a statement, China’s Eastern Theater Command said one of its carrier groups had sailed from waters near the Ryukyu Islands into the western Pacific for training and drills. Chinese military officials say the drills are meant to test long-range combat capabilities. 

Taiwanese commentators say the Liaoning’s transit is especially notable because it comes amid intensified Chinese military activity around Taiwan and broader efforts to normalize PLA Navy operations in contested areas. They are highlighting a concerning trend where China feels more comfortable moving high-value naval assets through one of the region’s most sensitive waterways. 

Japan Sends Destroyer Through Taiwan Strait Ahead of Balikatan Drills

Japan’s destroyer JS Ikazuchi (DD-107) transited the Taiwan Strait on April 17, drawing sharp criticism from China as a “deliberate provocation”. Beijing is specifically upset about the timing of the transit, as it falls on the anniversary of the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki that ceded Taiwan to Japan. The nearly 14-hour passage is seen to many in Taipei as a signal of Tokyo’s growing willingness to assert freedom of navigation and link Taiwan Strait security to wider regional concerns. Despite Beijing stepping up patrols and coercion, partners like the United States and the Philippines are seeing Japan’s latest move as an optimistic sign that it is willing to do more in contested waters.

The transit falls on the same week as Japan joins the U.S.-Philippines Balikatan exercise for the first time as a full participant. The Japan Self-Defense Force has deployed the Ikazuchi, helicopter destroyer JS Ise, transport ship JS Shimokita, Type 88 anti-ship missiles, and over 1,400 troops to northern Luzon, a strategic hotspot near Taiwan. The three-week drill, running April 20 to May 8, focuses on maritime security, coastal defense, amphibious operations, and integrated fires. Officials at the opening ceremony of Balikatan say this year’s drill highlights deepened trilateral alignment to counter threats across the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Authors: Jaime Ocon & Danielle Kremer

Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, Taiwan’s opposition leader lays out a path for more cooperation with China, Taiwanese intelligence points to a surge in Chinese ships in the region, and Taiwan’s Army conducts live fire drills with special forces. 

Taiwan’s Opposition Chairwoman Meets with Chinese President Xi, Pledges Closer Cooperation

Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Chairwoman, Cheng Li-wun, wrapped up a visit to China, where she met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and called for expanded exchanges between Taiwan and the mainland. Cheng later announced a set of 10 proposals she said were aimed at strengthening ties. Some of those proposals include resuming individual travel by residents of Shanghai and Fujian Province to Taiwan, gradually moving towards “full normalization” of direct cross-strait passenger flights. 

Chinese state media says the meeting highlighted Beijing’s efforts to maintain cross-strait communication despite rising tensions. While the meeting was brief, Xi used Cheng’s visit to repeat China’s position that any improvement in relations must be tied to opposition for Taiwan independence. Cheng told the media that she presented dialogue and practical exchanges as the best way to reduce friction and avoid further escalation.

This visit was notable because it underscored the KMT’s willingness to engage Beijing directly at a time when official cross-strait channels remain strained. The last time a sitting KMT chair visited China was back in 2016, when Hung Hsiu-chu made the trip. The recent trip also gave China an opportunity to showcase a Taiwanese opposition leader willing to speak publicly about expanding ties. Initial polling showed the majority of the Taiwanese public thought the trip would do “more harm than good,” but it is yet to be seen how the trip will affect the upcoming local election in the fall. 

Taiwan’s Army, Special Forces Conduct Annual Live-fire Drills in Pingtung

On April 6th, Taiwan’s 602nd Army Aviation and Special Forces Command Brigade conducted their annual “Joint Bravery Exercise” in Pingtung alongside the Taiwanese Army’s 234th Combined Arms Brigade. Said exercises are meant to adhere to the principle of “combat-oriented” training,  allowing officers and soldiers to hone their combat skills in real battlefield conditions through intensive drills. Air Force helicopter exercises began early in the morning on the 6th, with maintenance and equipment checks alongside ammunition retrievals of 20mm ammunition and 2.75-inch Poseidon rockets, from weapons crews. Once the preparation was complete, the pilots received orders to start their helicopters and took off to commence said live-fire exercises.

Alongside these helicopter tests, the joint forces conducted live-fire drills on the ground in coordination with infantry and armored units. In this exercise, units  focused on firepower coordination and capturing positions. To do this, they deployed with multiple heavy artillery pieces, including but not limited to 105mm tank guns and 120mm mortars. With the success of the first stage, the drill intensified. Attack helicopters were deployed to provide air support by executing low-altitude strikes simulating assaults on enemy positions. In doing so, the joint forces created a three-dimensional combat network, which they claim is a fully integrated air-ground battlefield system capable of coordinated multi-domain operations.

While these exercises were on a 24-hour schedule, a representative of the Army stated that the exercise was designed to begin with night combat, simulating how enemy defenses weaken, and outer positions are destroyed, allowing the main force to launch a daytime counterattack with ease. According to multiple reports, the Taiwanese military and MNDofficials called the exercise a success and plan to expand similar joint training exercises to further enhance combat readiness. The exercise ended on April 8th.

Taiwanese Intelligence Officials Concerned Over Uptick in Chinese Military Activity 

As of April 10th, Taiwanese officials are monitoring naval and military activity in the strait. According to Reuters, “China has deployed nearly 100 naval and coast guard vessels in and around the South and East China Seas this week.” This raises security concerns for Taiwan, as China typically deploys only 50-60 vessels in that region, and heightened naval activity at this time of year is quite rare. They also reported seven Chinese military aircraft operating in Taiwanese airspace. Taiwanese officials are still monitoring this increase in military activity in the South and East China Seas.  

In a Facebook post by Minister of the Ocean Affairs Council Kuan Bi-ling, a “sea situation map” was shared, sparking debate over the possible disclosure of classified information. The image clearly shows the locations of six Chinese warships and two coast guard vessels around Taiwan. They also mention that the Taiwanese Coast Guard can determine and track PLA naval vessels by type and hull number. Off the western coast of Taiwan, it was reported that they have identified a Type 052D multi-functional destroyer equipped with phased-array radar and missile systems, a Type 815 electronic reconnaissance ship designed to intercept Taiwanese signals at close range, and a Type 054A guided missile frigate with balanced air defense, anti-ship, and anti-submarine capabilities. On the cross-strait, two People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Coast Guard ships have been detected and confirmed to be Type 818 coast guard cutters. They have also found a Type 054A guided missile frigate, which is said to be specifically designed for anti-submarine warfare.

The use of naval vessels to intimidate and encircle Taiwan is Beijing’s “dual-track approach of military pressure and political exchanges.”  The use of this tactic aims to maintain sustained coercive pressure on Taiwan while signaling openness to political engagement, thereby weakening Taiwan’s deterrence and influencing decision-making. According to sources, Beijing does not plan to withdraw the air and sea blockade. 

Ling’s Facebook post added that “Because the leader of the main opposition party is planning to meet with Chinese leadership … it is necessary to appropriately disclose to the public and the international community the situation of China’s harassment in our waters, so that our people are informed and understand the serious implications.”.

Author: Jaime Ocon

Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, Taiwan’s military gets ready to start annual military wargames, the Coast Guard plans to spend big and reinforce Pratas Island, and the MND issues a warning over the possible effects of a budget delay.

Han Kuang Computer-Simulated Military Drills Starting Soon

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) has released more information on the upcoming 2026 Han Kuang exercise, with computer-assisted war games running from April 11 to 24. Military officials at a press conference say the simulations will focus on operational strategy, early warning and detection of enemy forces, rapid-response drills, and testing decision-making skills under pressure. The MND also added that this year’s drills will take lessons from recent conflicts in Iran, Venezuela, and Ukraine, as well as focus on drone and counter-drone operations. Officials say they emphasized these points to demonstrate that the military is adapting its training to the realities of the modern battlefield. 

Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercises are the country’s largest military drill and simulate how the military would respond to a full-scale invasion from China. The exercises began in the 1980s and have since come a long way, doubling in duration from five to ten days, and now featuring tens of thousands of conscripts. They are usually divided into two sections: a computer simulation and a live fire component. The drills had been criticized for decades for being too scripted and unrealistic, and since 2022, the MND has made significant improvements to try to fix that. Another major change is the addition of a “mini Han Kuang” that the military is calling a warm-up exercise ahead of the main exercises. This “Joint Defense Exercise” will take place sometime in July, and the live-fire component of Han Kuang will take place in early to mid-August. 

This year, the MND says Han Kuang will no longer just be a rehearsal for an invasion scenario, but also test whether Taiwan can sustain command and control during a conflict. Major benchmarks will include how well the MND can coordinate across different government agencies and how it will keep key systems functioning under gray-zone pressure and wartime conditions. Already, the military is prioritizing dispersed command posts, backup communications, and cross-regional force deployment, alongside logistics coordination across the island.

Coast Guard Plans $2B in Upgrades to Pratas Island Defenses Against Gray-Zone Pressure

Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) says it will strengthen its defenses on Pratas Island due to increasing gray-zone pressure from China, according to Ocean Affairs Council head Kuan Bi-ling. As a whole, Kuan says the CGA plans to invest roughly US$1.88 billion to reinforce the coast guard, including improving port infrastructure, procuring more patrol vessels, and increasing capacity to conduct law enforcement operations. Kuan added that Beijing has been increasing the number of government vessels in operation, specifically around Dongsha, since last year, and warned that seizing these islands would carry “considerable strategic significance” for China. She stressed that Chinese maritime pressure was already a “war without gunpowder”.

Speaking at the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents Club, Kuan highlighted how lightly defended Pratas remains and pointed to a Chinese reconnaissance drone flying over it in January as another example of provocative activity by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The big concern is that daily Chinese pressure around Dongsha and other outlying islands like Kinmen, Matsu, and Penghu is stretching Taiwan’s resources. While the Coast Guard and the military say it provides an opportunity for Taiwan to test its resolve, more needs to be done to accelerate the transition from peacetime to wartime readiness. 

Taiwan’s MND Warns Legislature of Harmful Effects of Budget Delay

Taiwan’s MND has warned that any delays in approving this year’s defense budget could threaten roughly NT$78 billion (US$2.44 billion) in weapons procurement, maintenance, and training. Officials say that delays could affect roughly 21 percent of the annual budget and its original timetable. This includes procurement programs such as HIMARS, Javelin missiles, and follow-on training for F-16s.

These warnings from the MND come at a difficult time for Taiwan, as its Legislature is currently embroiled in a debate over how much to spend on its defense. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has submitted a separate NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) special defense budget, while opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) have submitted proposals of roughly NT$380 billion (US$12 billion) and NT$400 billion (US$13 billion), respectively. Opposition lawmakers continue to criticize the Lai administration’s budget for a lack of specificity with some budget items, and are pushing the government to justify how they intend to spend appropriated funds. 

Defense officials have increasingly become frustrated with the deadlock, which is approaching almost six months. The MND argues that any delay will produce irreversible effects because procurement timelines, training pipelines, and maintenance schedules all depend on predictable funding. 

Author: Jaime Ocon

Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, Taiwan’s opposition leaders plan a landmark visit to Beijing to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping, Taiwan’s military conducts a live-fire TOW missile drill in eastern Taiwan, and lawmakers again fail to advance the special defense budget. 

KMT Chairwoman Accepts Invitation to Visit Beijing

Kuomintang (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun has announced that she has “gladly accepted” an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping to lead a delegation to China from April 7 to 12. As part of the visit, she will visit Jiangsu and Shanghai before heading to Beijing and possibly meeting with President Xi. The invitation, which came from the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, comes after Cheng repeatedly expressed interest in visiting the mainland since taking office in November 2025. 

Speaking to reporters, Cheng says that the trip will demonstrate to Taiwan and the world that cross-strait relations are not destined for war, while stressing adherence to the “1992 Consensus” and opposition to Taiwan independence. The 1992 Consensus refers to a verbal understanding reached in 1992 between unofficial representatives of the KMT and CPC that there is “one China” but with different interpretations of what that means. The visit will mark the first by a sitting KMT chair since Hung Hsiu-chu’s trip in 2016. Cheng framed the purpose of the visit as key to advancing KMT-CPC ties and peaceful cross-strait development. Details on delegation members and the exact agenda remain pending.

Many observers point to the timing of the visit, which is just weeks ahead of a planned Trump-Xi summit, and raises questions about potential U.S. reactions and domestic political risks for the KMT ahead of Taiwan’s local elections in the fall. Critics both from within and outside of the KMT have accused Cheng of being overly pro-China, but her party says they support the planned trip. 

Taiwan Conducts TOW Missile and Artillery Drills in Eastern Taiwan

Taiwan’s military this week conducted a series of live-fire drills featuring the newly introduced TOW-2B anti-armor missiles and various kinds of artillery. The exercises took place in eastern Taitung near Taimali Beach, and simulated coastal defense tactics against a Chinese amphibious assault. In total, there were two separate drills, with the  “Justice Exercise” featuring M60A3 tank guns, 155mm howitzers, and 120mm and 81mm mortars, while the “Sky Horse Exercise” featured TOW missiles. Both exercises had similar objectives, as military officials say the drills focus on intercepting a landing force approaching eastern Taiwan and testing the army’s ability to use anti-armor firepower to break up enemy forces at sea. It is the second artillery drill for the Army’s Huadong Defense Command since December, and Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo confirmed the presence of U.S. personnel at this week’s exercise. 

Budget Stalemate Continues with U.S. Granting Payment Extension for HIMARS

Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (LY) failed to make meaningful progress this week on passing a supplemental defense budget, prolonging the debate on funding for the U.S.-approved weapons sales until next month. The dispute remains centered on the budget’s size and scope, with the Lai administration’s version calling for $40 billion in spending, and opposition parties arguing for roughly $13 billion. 

However, the debate comes at a time when the Ministry of National Defense (MND) is under pressure to sign agreements to begin paying for U.S. systems. Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo says the U.S. has agreed to extend the initial payment schedule until the end of May for 82 HIMARS systems and munitions, originally due on March 30 (today). In mid-March, the MND signed Letters of Offer and Acceptance (LOAs) for HIMARS and three other arms sales, but has not been able to make initial payments owing to the ongoing review of special defense budgets.

The MND says that time is of the essence, as further delays could affect payment deadlines for certain systems. Defense officials and U.S. lawmakers have continued to rally support for Taiwanese lawmakers to pass a supplemental defense budget, but debates on how much to spend have been stalled since November. 

Author: Jaime Ocon

Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, senior members of Taiwan’s defense ministry traveled to the U.S. to inspect military aircraft, ADIZ activity in the Taiwan Strait continues to spark public discourse, and China’s Coast Guard steps up pressure near Kinmen and Dongsha Island. 

Vice Defense Minister Makes U.S. Trip, Showcases Updates on U.S. Systems. 

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced on March 21 that Vice Minister of Defense Hsu Shih-chien led a delegation to the United States to inspect key procurement projects that are close to delivery. In a press release, the MND delegation says they witnessed the completion of testing for Taiwan’s first F-16 Block 70 fighter jet at Lockheed Martin’s production facility in Greenville, South Carolina. The testing took place on March 16, and alongside Vice Minister Hsu were Taiwan’s Representative to the United States, Alexander Yui Tah-ray; Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff, Major General Tian Chung-yi; and Taiwan’s Defense Mission Chief, Major General Wei Chung-hsing. The MND specified that the group observed the first Acceptance Check Flight (ACF) and that Lockheed Martin briefed the delegation on production progress. Officials at Lockheed say that the F-16 Block 70 production line is at full capacity and has assigned hundreds of staff to the program to ensure delivery remains on track. The MND says that after Taiwan’s Block 70 aircraft receive factory acceptance, they will undergo final inspections by the U.S. government before delivery to Taiwan later this year.

The U.S. approved an $8 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan in 2019, a deal that would expand the country’s F-16 fleet to more than 200 aircraft, the largest in Asia. The deal, however, has continued to face delays due to production and software issues. As part of a broader modernization effort, Taiwan has already upgraded 141 of its older F-16A/B models to the advanced F-16V variant and is now awaiting delivery of 66 brand-new F-16Vs. Taiwanese officials say all aircraft will be delivered by 2028. The MND says it will continue to use existing Taiwan–U.S. security cooperation mechanisms to accelerate the delivery of the fighter jets, which it says are important to Taiwan’s air defense and deterrence capabilities.

During the same trip, the MND delegation also attended the handover ceremony for the first batch of MQ-9B SeaGuardian maritime surveillance drones. Taiwan purchased four MQ-9Bs from General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. in 2022, of which the U.S. is scheduled to deliver two aircraft in 2026 and two more in 2027. During the ceremony, Vice Minister Hsu observed a flight demonstration and also hopped into the driver’s seat to test the UAV’s capabilities. 

Taiwan ADIZ Activity Continues to Fluctuate After Lull

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported 28 People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, including J-10, J-16 fighter jets, and KJ-500 command and control planes operating around the region on Tuesday (March 17). 21 of the aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). The MND says these aircraft were conducting joint air-sea training along PLAN vessels. The spike in activity comes as Taiwan’s MND reported a small uptick in Chinese military activity around the island last Sunday (March 15), ending a lull that had analysts looking for answers. 

Interestingly enough, Sunday’s ADIZ report sent shockwaves across social media after multiple media outlets began reporting that there was “Large Scale Chinese Military Activity Surrounding Taiwan”. Despite the MND reporting nothing indicating that it was surrounded, multiple accounts on X and Bluesky had a field day, reposting this false narrative. AI-generated maps based on previous military exercises in 2024 began to circulate, and within 12-24 hours, some posts had reached nearly 5 million engagements. A dangerous and concerning look into how misinformation around Taiwan can spread like wildfire. 

Our analysis and leadership team at TSM wrote a great article that goes into detail about what happened, which can be found here: https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/from-16-aircraft-to-surrounded-fear-virality-and-the-misinformation-cascade-in-adiz-discourse/ 

Despite that, Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo acknowledged the recent lull in activity but cautioned against reading too much into it, emphasizing that Taiwan’s armed forces need to remain on alert regardless. Koo told the Wall Street Journal that “we cannot rely on a single indicator like the absence of aircraft,” pointing to daily Chinese naval patrols around the island as a sign of continued pressure. Some analysts believe the lull was linked either to the annual meeting of the PRC’s National People’s Congress or to a broader diplomatic strategy ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in late March. 

Coast Guard Activity Surges in Kinmen and Dongsha 

Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) has reported a surge in China Coast Guard (CCG) ships entering restricted waters around Kinmen and Dongsha Island. On March 16th, 17th, 20th, and 23rd, multiple CCG vessels breached restricted waters off Kinmen in coordinated formations, prompting Taiwan’s CGA to dispatch its own patrol boats. Taiwan says it conducted one-to-one shadowing of each Chinese vessel and issued repeated radio warnings in Chinese and English. 

A similar situation unfolded near Dongsha Island on March 18, when a China Coast Guard ship (hull number 3102) entered Taiwan’s restricted waters after first being detected loitering just outside this area. Taiwan’s CGA is accusing Beijing of deliberately switching off the AIS signal and using small but frequent probes to test Taiwan’s detection and reaction capabilities. CGA officials say they will use high-tech surveillance and robust forward deployments to safeguard national sovereignty and maintain maritime security amid mounting gray-zone pressure.

For more information about the CCG’s activity around Taiwan, check out the China Coast Guard Incident Tracker on our website.

Author: Jaime Ocon

Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, Taiwan’s army conducts a new kind of exercise, a lack of ADIZ activity around Taiwan raises suspicion, and a supplemental defense budget inches closer to being passed.

Army Wraps Up Inaugural CTC 2.0 Combat Readiness Drills

Taiwan’s Army has wrapped up a new kind of military exercise called “CTC 2.0” (Combat Training Center rotation 2.0). The Ministry of National Defense (MND) says the inaugural drills are a significant upgrade to its existing combat readiness exercise and are modeled after U.S. Army training. The first-ever rotation involved the 542nd, 584th, and 586th Combined Arms Brigades, along with the 39th Chemical Corps and 52nd Engineer Group. The goal of these exercises, per military officials, is to simulate uninterrupted high-intensity operations to improve the combat endurance of Taiwan’s troops. The military simulated live-fire scenarios using an opposing force, creating mock fires within an integrated engagement system. These live-fire scenarios put pressure on units to coordinate combined arms tactics and forced officers to issue quick orders using the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP). Soldiers taking part in the drills were also tested on how they conducted logistics, with some units even performing maintenance and swapping engines on the fly. 

Since 2023, Taiwan has been making great strides to increase the realism of its military exercises, and the new CTC 2.0 is a continuation of those efforts. These drills were extended from 5 days/4 nights to 10 days/9 nights, and included one-year conscripts alongside the active volunteer force. Units that fail the drills must complete the entire exercise again. Engineers who took part in CTC 2.0 say this iteration helped them improve their ability to rapidly deploy mines, obstacles, and field fortifications under pressure across different terrains. A large number of armor crewmembers, however, say the drills are physically and mentally demanding, due to the 24-hour cycle having no predictable rest periods. Battalion commanders say the biggest challenge was issuing orders under pressure and under consistently changing battlefield conditions. 

Suspicious ADIZ Activity Around Taiwan Raises Eyebrows  

It’s been an interesting two weeks for Taiwan, which has since reported a sharp uptick in Chinese military activity around its airspace on Sunday, ending a rare 10-day lull in flights that have left analysts and observers around the world looking for answers. Regardless, Taiwan’s MND says it spotted 26 PLA military aircraft operating in the region, with 16 crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait or entering Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone (ADIZ). Seven Chinese naval vessels were also observed maneuvering in the surrounding waters. 

From February 27 to March 11, the MND reported zero People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) sorties on 11 of 13 days, being the longest pause since 2021. Beijing offered no public comment, and Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense, Wellington Koo, has cautioned against reading too much into the “de-escalation.” Koo went on to tell reporters that Chinese naval patrols “still surround us daily.” Analysts in Taipei and Washington have floated a variety of competing theories, ranging from internal leadership disruptions due to recent PLA purges to political calculations ahead of an anticipated U.S.–China summit. Some analysts have highlighted possible fuel shortages and new training formats as another possibility, but one thing is for sure: no one knows exactly why. Some observers now say that the resurgence of flights suggests the lull was tactical rather than strategic, as with the Two Sessions finished, aircraft are now starting to return.

Taiwan Security Monitor put out its own explanation for the lull in activity on March 7. You can read the full article here: 

Taiwan’s Legislature Sends All Supplemental Budget Proposals to Committee Review

Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan (LY) has agreed to send all three versions of a supplemental defense budget draft to the various committees for review. The competing proposals includes the Lai administration’s NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) request, a proposal by the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) worth NT$400 billion (US$12.7 billion), and a third budget by the Kuomintang (KMT) worth NT$380 billion (US$11.93 billion)   Days later, the LY agreed to allow the Cabinet to sign Letters of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for four U.S. weapons systems. Three of those systems, Paladin self-propelled howitzers, TOW-2B, and Javelin anti-armor missiles, had a deadline of March 15. A fourth LOA, to be signed for 82 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and munitions, has a March 26 deadline. The next step is for the Cabinet to inform the Legislature of the estimated procurement timelines for these systems. The decision to push the budget forward comes just days after the KMT said it could also support the TPP’s special defense budget proposal. KMT legislator Lo Ting-wei said the plans are similar enough that the versions could be merged into a unified “blue-white” budget reflecting cooperation between the parties. 

The budget dispute has intensified after the U.S. announced a US$11 billion arms sale to Taiwan in December. Over 30 American lawmakers took to social media and sent a bipartisan letter to LY leaders, urging approval of a supplemental budget. The KMT and TPP both support increasing defense spending, but are more concerned about oversight mechanisms and specific funding details. The KMT’s version requires receipt of LOAs before releasing funds and mandates delivery by 2028, while the TPP would fund only five of the eight U.S. arms sale items. The KMT and TPP oppose the idea of the DPP receiving a “blank check” for President Lai’s administration. The DPP has continued to release more information clarifying what they would purchase, including funds for a domestic air defense network (T-Dome) and indigenous missile production. 

Author: Jaime Ocon

Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, Taiwan’s military reveals a strategic reserve force, missile drills are set to debut in eastern Taitung, an Australian frigate transits the Taiwan Strait, and China conducts a combat patrol in the middle of the Lunar New Year. 

601st Army Aviation Revealed as Strategic Reserve Force

An unnamed military official quoted by the Liberty Times revealed that the 601st Army Aviation Brigade will serve as one of the country’s strategic reserve units during wartime. The comments were made after the Military News Agency posted a video showing the brigade conducting combat readiness training during the Lunar New Year Holiday. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) added that the 601st is a standby rapid response force for Taiwan’s Northern Command. During a conflict, this unit would be tasked with defending key installations in northern Taiwan, conducting counterterrorism operations at government facilities, and supporting disaster relief efforts. The MND says the brigade can quickly respond to enemy decapitation attempts or special operations infiltrations. 

Stationed roughly 30 miles away in Taoyuan City, the 601st centers around a fleet of roughly 30 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, 15 UH-60M Blackhawk utility helicopters, and 13 OH-58D Kiowa multipurpose helicopters. They support broader operations within Taiwan’s 6th Army Corps, which is responsible for all of northern Taiwan. The MND says the 601st provides the military with precise strike capabilities, high mobility, and a flexible force composition, making it an indispensable air combat asset within Taiwan’s armed forces’ joint operations framework.

The 601st Brigade is not the only strategic reserve force under the MND. Recently, the Marine Corps’ 66th Brigade has also adopted a similar role, taking responsibility for the defense of the capital, Taipei. On top of that, the MND has approved the transfer of the 66th Brigade’s wartime operational command from the 6th Army Corps to the General Staff Headquarters. In theory, this command transfer should improve efficiency and shorten the command chain in providing orders to soldiers on the ground. It also means that during wartime, the brigade is not bound by the command of any single combat zone (North, Central, Southern, etc.) and can support various frontlines across Taiwan. 

Military to Debut Sky Horse TOW Missile Drills in Eastern Taitung

Sources within Taiwan’s army say they will hold live-fire shooting drills along the east coast of Taitung in March, the first time in three decades. The annual drills, known as the “Sky Horse” exercise (天馬操演), will focus on using anti-armor missiles and heavy artillery to strike targets at sea. Sources quoted by the Taipei Times say this year, “[t]he scenario simulates Chinese forces breaking through Taiwan’s sea and air defenses, with amphibious fleets preparing to land along the east coast.” The report goes on to describe that “[g]round forces would then employ heavy firepower in coastal interception operations to block an assault on eastern Taiwan.”

This drill usually takes place in the spring and summer and features dozens of Humvees equipped with TOW missiles parked on the shoreline as soldiers conduct several rounds of target practice on the west coast of southern Taiwan, but that changed last year. In August 2025, the military conducted similar live-fire drills for the first time in central Taiwan along Taichung’s Dajia River, with the MND focusing on realism and location-specific training. The shift to eastern Taiwan is apparently also part of this effort. The main focus of this year’s exercise would be to test new TOW-2B Radio Frequency systems, 1,700 of which were recently acquired from the U.S., and so the MND is eager to implement these weapon systems into their training structure. 

It’s also important to add that this drill is quite a spectacle and draws a fair bit of pressure as dozens of media with cameras are broadcasting the shooting drill live, so every shot is scrutinized quite heavily. Last year, an early round of training saw 10 successful hits out of 17 shots, prompting a massive debate online about the effectiveness of Taiwan’s training. However, the military later explained that four of the missiles were defective and that later rounds showed a higher hit rate. 

Australian Navy Ship Transits Through Taiwan Strait 

An Australian Anzac-class frigate, HMAS Toowoomba (FFH 156), conducted a routine transit of the Taiwan Strait, according to a government source. In a report from Reuters, government officials from Australia said the transit was part of a “Regional Presence Deployment in the Indo-Pacific region,” and that “all interactions with foreign ships and aircraft were safe and professional.” According to a Liberty Times report, Toowoomba‘s embarked MH-60 Seahawk helicopter was warned by Taiwanese authorities after crossing the Strait’s median line. 

In response, Chinese state media claimed that the PLA tracked, monitored, and shadowed the Australian vessel throughout its transit. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, not confirming that the transit occurred,  stated that it would not proactively disclose the movements of aircraft or ships from friendly partner countries. While U.S. Taiwan Strait transits are relatively routine, other countries, including the United Kingdom, France, and New Zealand, have increasingly conducted similar operations. For a full list of Taiwan Strait transits, see our Taiwan Strait Transit Tracker.

Lunar New Year Activity 

Taiwan’s MND reported that it had detected 14 People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft operating in the region as part of a Joint Combat Readiness Patrol on 19 February. 10 of those aircraft crossed the Taiwanese side of the median line and/or Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Among the group, the MND identified a mix of J-10, J-11, and J-16 fighter jets as well as KJ-500 early warning aircraft coordinating with PLA naval vessels. The MND says that regardless of the PLA using the pretext of a “joint combat readiness patrol,” the operation still harasses the air and seas around Taiwan. In response, Taiwan’s military employed joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance measures to maintain situational awareness and dispatched aircraft, naval vessels, and missile systems. 

The patrol came on the 3rd day of the Lunar New Year holiday, and there was no reported PLA activity on the first two days. For comprehensive data regarding PLA activity around Taiwan, check out the PLA Activity Center on our website.

Author: Jaime Ocon

Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!

This week, President Lai urges the opposition to pass a $40B special budget, the military considers a live-fire test of ATACMS, and China’s Coast Guard breaches Taiwan’s restricted waters in three separate incidents. 

President Lai Holds Press Conference on Special Defense Budget 

Taiwan’s President, Lai Ching-te, held a snap press conference on Wednesday, 11 February, to explain the rationale behind the country’s record NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) supplemental defense budget. A spending package that was presented to the Legislative Yuan (LY) in December but has since been blocked more than 10 times by the opposition Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and Kuomintang (KMT).  The press conference began with a plea from President Lai: “National defense cannot wait. Our safety cannot wait. Support for our troops cannot wait.” Lai went on to urge the public to look at what other countries are doing to ensure their security. “Indo-Pacific neighbors have also increased defense spending in reaction to China’s mounting military aggression” Lai added, saying that “Taiwan cannot fall”. Lai’s complete speech can be found here.

Also addressing the news conference was Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo, as well as Vice President Hsiao-Bi Khim and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Minister Koo explained that the budget delay risks a “rupture” in the joint line of defense against China. “In the Indo-Pacific region, especially among the countries in the first island chain, Taiwan plays a critical and almost destined role,” Koo said. At the press conference,Koo repeated that “Taiwan and the U.S. have continued to have intensive talks about what weapons Taiwan needs.”

The press conference comes after months of infighting between the DPP-backed Lai administration and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on the passage of a record-breaking supplemental defense budget.  The “Special Act for the Procurement Program to Strengthen Defense Resilience and Asymmetric Capabilities” is worth NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) and would fund various U.S. weapon systems and equipment. A complete breakdown of approved U.S. systems can be found here. 

The opposition continues to delay and oppose the bill due to a lack of oversight and reservations about handing over a “blank check” to President Lai. The DPP, however, says the KMT and TPP’s demands are unconstitutional, citing a prior ruling that found requiring the President to provide real-time responses to lawmakers’ questions to be unlawful. Recently, 37 U.S. senators and representatives signed a bipartisan letter, addressed to Taiwan’s opposition party leaders in the KMT and TPP, urging politicians there to sign the deal. The letter included praise for Taiwan’s recent military reforms but also worries about sustaining that momentum. “Nevertheless, we fear that without significant increases in Taiwan’s defense spending at levels reflected in President Lai’s proposed special budget, this progress will be insufficient,” the letter said. Taiwan’s parliament, meanwhile, returns from winter recess at the end of February. 

Military Reportedly Prepping Rare ATACMS Live-Fire Test in Late 2026

Taiwan’s military could be gearing up to conduct a rare live-fire test of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) in the weeks following August’s Han Kuang military exercises, according to Liberty Times.

Every year in the summer, Taiwan’s armed forces conduct live-fire missile tests to ensure the quality of their weapons and also conduct target practice with munitions approaching their expiration date. Last May was the first time that Taiwan conducted a live-fire test of recently delivered HIMARS, firing more than 30 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) pods. Other munitions like PAC-2 interceptors, Thunderbolt-2000 MLRS rockets, and Land Sword-2 missiles were also fired. 

Military officials quoted in the report say that they are looking to verify the performance of recently delivered ATACMS missiles, which can reach targets up to 300 km away. Taiwan has received the first batch of 64 ATACMS missiles in November 2024, originally from a deal notified in 2020. In December 2025, the U.S. approved an additional 420 ATACMS missiles as part of a sale of 82 additional HIMARS systems and munitions. There is, however, no contract or set delivery time for these munitions. Other systems like the Altius-700M loitering munitions might also be incorporated into the annual drill, but Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has yet to comment on the future tests. 

TSM recently released its January Taiwan Arms Sales Backlog report, which includes a public repository of all publicly announced arms sales, including ATACMS. You can check that out here:

China Steps Up Maritime Pressure With Multiple Coast Guard Intrusions Near Taiwan

It was a busy week for Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) as they saw three separate incidents involving Chinese Coast Guard ships breaching restricted waters near Kinmen. The intrusions are tied for the most in a single week, involving the same Chinese ships with hull nos. 14603, 14529, 14609, and 14530. The CGA said it deployed its own vessels to shadow and intercept China’s Coast Guard ships, as well as issued radio warnings. Each incident averaged roughly two hours of CCG ships breaching Kinmen’s restricted waters. This marks the seventh total incursion into Kinmen’s waters for 2026. 

Taiwan’s CGA has been trying to match China’s Coast Guard presence in the seas around the Taiwan Strait and has embarked on an ambitious ship-building initiative to combat China’s grey-zone tactics. Also this week, Taiwan accepted delivery of its newest Anping-class offshore patrol vessel, the Lanyu (蘭嶼艦), the 11th vessel of its type. The ship is equipped for law enforcement, firefighting, and search-and-rescue missions but can also be fitted with Hsiung Feng II and III anti-ship missiles if needed during a conflict.