Posts - Taiwan Security Monitor

Weekly PRC Media Review: 10/31/25

Author: Ethan Connell

Here’s the latest edition of the TSM PRC State Media Tracker. Each Friday, we highlight key excerpts from China’s state media organs, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of National Defense, and the Taiwan Affairs Office, all below!

Ministry of Foreign Affairs Statement on Taiwan Restoration Day

27 October 2025

Guo Jiakun: On the 80th anniversary of Taiwan’s restoration, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress decided to establish Taiwan Restoration Day, demonstrating the firm resolve of all ethnic groups in China to uphold the One-China principle and defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It reflects the common aspiration of Chinese people at home and abroad, including compatriots in Taiwan, and highlights the strong will of the Communist Party of China to fulfill its historical mission and unswervingly achieve the complete reunification of the motherland.

The restoration of Taiwan is an important component of the victory of World War II and the postwar international order. The One-China principle is a universally recognized consensus and a fundamental norm in international relations. By establishing Taiwan Restoration Day, China has further consolidated the international consensus that there is only one China in the world and that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China. We hope that all countries will continue to adhere to the One-China principle, jointly promote a correct understanding of World War II history, resolutely safeguard the fruits of the victory in that war, and support the just cause of the Chinese people in opposing “Taiwan independence” separatist activities and achieving national reunification.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs Statement on Lin Chia-lung’s Comments on the US–Taiwan Relationship

30 October 2025

Guo Jiakun: Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The greatest threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait today comes from “Taiwan independence” separatist activities and the indulgence and support of external forces. China firmly opposes any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, and hopes that the U.S. side will abide by the One-China principle and the three China–U.S. joint communiqués, and handle Taiwan-related issues with utmost prudence.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities stubbornly seek independence by relying on foreign forces, using every occasion to peddle “Taiwan independence” fallacies in an attempt to distort facts and mislead the public. Their actions are despicable and shameful, and their schemes are doomed to fail. No matter what the DPP authorities say or do, they cannot change the historical and legal fact that Taiwan is part of China’s territory, nor can they stop the unstoppable historical trend of China’s eventual—and inevitable—reunification.

Ministry of National Defense Statement on the U.S.–Taiwan Defense Industry Conference

30 October 2025

Zhang Xiaogang: The DPP authorities, for the sake of one-party interests, pander to the United States and sell out Taiwan with no bottom line, recklessly pursuing militarization that hollows out Taiwan and pushes ordinary Taiwanese toward a disaster. No matter how many weapons the DPP buys, it will not change the cross-Strait military balance or alter the inevitable fate of “Taiwan independence” collapsing.

The U.S. should fully recognize the extreme sensitivity and serious harm of arms sales to Taiwan, stop playing with fire on issues involving China’s core interests, and put its professed non-support for “Taiwan independence” into practice. The PLA will, with greater capability and more reliable means, resolutely smash any “Taiwan independence” plots and outside interference, and defend the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

A report from China Central Television on the establishment of “Taiwan Restoration Day” in China, intended to “solidly advance the process of national reunification”:

24 October 2025

October 25th will now be “Taiwan Restoration Day” in China, according to state media reporting. The day will feature “commemorative activities in various forms” and is intended to “solidly advance the process of national reunification.” The measure was adopted this week following a decision by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress. October 25th is already a national holiday in Taiwan, called “Taiwan Retrocession Day,” and celebrates the turnover of Taipei from Japanese to ROC forces following the end of WWII.

How Japan Can Unlock US Munitions Bottlenecks for Taiwan

Author: Jonathan Walberg

The guided missile cruiser USS Princeton (CG 59) launches an AGM-84 Harpoon Block II missile at the Naval Air Systems Command Sea Test Range off the coast of Southern California, Sept. 10, 2009. The Harpoon Block II is one of several arms systems sold but not yet delivered to Taiwan. Image Credit: U.S. Navy

U.S. arms deliveries to Taiwan are being slowed less by politics than by production and regulatory constraints. Bottlenecks in munitions and critical subcomponents (such as rocket motors, seekers, radomes, and launch hardware) are limiting output on U.S. production lines. Because those same lines support foreign military sales to multiple allies, delays to Taiwan also push deliveries for other partners further into the future.

Current export control rules, particularly the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), restrict the ability of close allies to help relieve these industrial chokepoints, even when they have available capacity. The 2024 AUKUS ITAR framework with the United Kingdom and Australia shows that it is possible to reduce regulatory friction while maintaining strong security safeguards. A similarly narrow, mission-driven arrangement with Japan could allow co-production of low-sensitivity munitions subassemblies that are currently constraining U.S. output, without transferring sensitive technologies or design authority.

Read the full article here.

Taiwan Arms Sale Backlog, July 2025 Update

Second Batch of Abrams Tanks Arrives

By Eric Gomez and Joseph O’Connor

A second batch of Abrams tanks arrived in Taiwan in late July, but besides this development, July was quiet in terms of arms sales updates. From July 9-18, Taiwan’s military conducted its annual Han Kuang series of exercises, which featured several developments of note.

The Taiwan Security Monitor (TSM) dataset only removes an arms sale from the backlog when it is fully delivered. Therefore, the overall size of the U.S. arms sale backlog to Taiwan remains $21.54 billion. However, for arms sales valued at over $1 billion, deliveries in progress are marked in yellow-orange in our visualizations.. Figure 1 shows the current composition of the arms sale backlog by weapon category. Table 1 shows an itemized list of arms sales in the backlog with the most recently available information about their status.

Han Kuang Exercise

The biggest development in Taiwan security news in July was the annual Han Kuang exercise. Han Kuang is Taiwan’s largest and most highly publicized exercise. The 2025 iteration featured several notable changes from previous years. The TSM team conducted real-time open-source analysis of the Han Kuang exercise that can be found on our X account.

One of the most widely covered new aspects of the Han Kuang exercise was increased realism in engineering and logistics aspects of the exercise to better simulate wartime conditions. For example, military police troops practiced moving shoulder-fired Stinger missiles on Taipei’s underground metro system. Other aspects of improved realism in Han Kuang 2025 were the calling up of more reservists— 22,000 participated, a record high— and the integration of two civil defense drills that occur concurrently with Han Kuang but were previously kept separate.

Abrams Tank Delivery and Other Arms Sale Updates

The biggest piece of arms sales backlog news in July was the arrival of a second batch of 42 M1A2T Abrams tanks. Taiwan has now taken delivery of 80 Abrams tanks. The final batch of 28 tanks is expected to arrive in the first quarter of 2026, which seems likely given the successful on-time deliveries of the first two batches. The Abrams sale, valued at $2 billion, was originally notified to Congress in July 2019.

As a reminder, the TSM dataset does not reduce the overall dollar value of the backlog for partial deliveries, which is why there is no change in the backlog’s overall composition or dollar value from June 2025. The Abrams case, the third largest case by dollar value, has been a relatively smooth arms sale compared to other large cases in the backlog. Final delivery in early 2026 will bring the backlog’s overall value below the $20 billion threshold, assuming there are no new arms sales announced between now and then.

There were two other small developments in July worth mentioning:

First, at the end of the month, Raytheon was awarded a $3.5 billion contract to produce Lots 39 and 40 of AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), with a completion date in the third quarter of fiscal year 2031. The AMRAAM is one of the most popular U.S. arms sale items, as shown by the 19 foreign country customers mentioned in the contract award announcement. It is unclear when Taiwan will receive the missiles and how many missiles are being produced. Taiwan is currently waiting for delivery of 123 AMRAAM-ER missiles from a 2024 sale of National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and 200 AIM-120C-8 missiles from a 2023 sale of various F-16 munitions.

Second, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) announced plans to purchase five types of commercial, off-the-shelf drones, with almost 50,000 to be purchased in 2026. Commercial drones have played a significant role in helping Ukraine stymie Russia and would be an important fixture of an asymmetric defense strategy for Taiwan. The MND has made welcome investments and efforts to expand its use of drones of various sizes and capabilities across the military, including purchasing approximately 1,000 small drones via U.S. arms sales (720 Switchblades and 291 ALTIUS drones).

While the overall value of the U.S. arms sales backlog to Taiwan did not change in July, the on-time delivery of a second batch of Abrams tanks is a good sign and a harbinger of a very large decrease in the backlog early next year.

Visualization: Deployment of U.S. Typhon Missile System in Japan

Authors: Chris Dayton, Joe O’Connor

On September 15, a U.S. Typhon Missile System, capable of firing the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM), was deployed to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in southern Japan. This marks the first deployment of Typhon to Japan, and the platform will take part in the currently ongoing Resolute Dragon 25 exercise.

Below is our visualization of the Typhon’s deployment location and operational range.

Visualization: Delared Scarborough Shoal “Natural Nature Reserve”

Visualization: 9/5/25 Taiwan Strait Transit

Visualization: Taiwan’s Varied Aircraft Protection

Visualization: New AFP Forward Operating Base Mahato

Visualization: New Type-12 and HVGP Missile Deployment Locations

Visualization: Map of Scarborough Shoal Collision and Nearby Naval Activity

Authors: Chris Dayton, Ethan Connell

On August 11, 2025, a PLAN destroyer and a China Coast Guard cutter collided with each other in the waters around Scarborough Shoal during a close-quarters pursuit of a Philippine government vessel.

Above is a visualization highlighting the reported collision site and the floating barrier at the shoal, along with USS Higgins’ approximate 8/12/2025 position and estimated track derived from public AIS data.