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Taiwan Affairs Office: In 2025, exchanges and dialogue with Taiwan-related political parties, groups, and representative figures achieved positive results.

At the January 7 press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a reporter asked: Please introduce the situation regarding exchanges and dialogue with Taiwan’s political parties, groups, and representative figures in 2025. What are the plans for 2026?

In response, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said that in 2025, on the shared political basis of adhering to the “1992 Consensus” and opposing “Taiwan independence,” they maintained positive interactions with relevant Taiwanese political parties, groups, and representative figures, consolidated and enhanced mutual trust, strengthened exchanges and cooperation, and achieved positive results.

First, they helped set the direction for the development of cross-Strait relations. On October 19, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Cheng Li-wen on her election as chair of the Chinese Kuomintang, noting that over the years, on the shared political basis of adhering to the “1992 Consensus” and opposing “Taiwan independence,” the two parties had promoted cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation, worked to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and enhanced the well-being and bonds between compatriots on both sides, with positive results. On the same day, Cheng Li-wen sent a reply message expressing her thanks to General Secretary Xi. Xi’s congratulatory message pointed the way forward for the development of relations between the two parties and across the Strait, and received widespread attention and high praise from all sectors on both sides of the Strait and from the international community.

Second, they commemorated the 80th anniversary of victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and Taiwan’s restoration, jointly remembering history and defending its achievements. Representatives of island political parties such as the Kuomintang, the New Party, the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union, and the People First Party were invited to attend the commemorative events marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. Wang Huning met with Hung Hsiu-chu and other Taiwanese representatives who came to attend the events, promoting joint remembrance of the history of the national war of resistance, defense of the victory’s achievements, and joint efforts to advance the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and the process of national reunification. Taiwan’s restoration is a shared glory of compatriots on both sides of the Strait and a collective memory of all Chinese people. Relevant political parties, groups, and figures in Taiwan held various commemorative activities to honor the martyrs and heroes, express national sentiments, share pride and dignity in being Chinese, and safeguard the shared home of the Chinese nation.

Third, they added momentum to cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation. Ma Ying-jeou, Hung Hsiu-chu, Wu Cheng-tien, Lin Bing-kun, and other representative figures from the Kuomintang, New Party, People First Party, Non-Partisan Solidarity Union, and other parties and groups led delegations to the mainland to attend the 17th Straits Forum, the Cross-Strait Grassroots Livelihood Development Exchange Conference, the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival Exchange for Compatriots on Both Sides of the Strait, and other exchange activities and visits. They voiced positive messages about adhering to the “1992 Consensus,” opposing “Taiwan independence,” deepening cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation, and benefiting compatriots on both sides.

Fourth, they sought to bring benefits to Taiwan compatriots. Relevant parties on both sides jointly held the 5th “Joining Hands to Realize Dreams—Cross-Strait Compatriots Exchange and Seminar,” reaching five consensuses including adherence to the one-China principle and safeguarding the shared home. Insightful figures from both sides conducted dialogue on issues such as the situation in the Taiwan Strait, cross-Strait relations, and prospects for reunification, voicing strong calls to oppose “Taiwan independence” separatism and foreign interference and to promote national reunification and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Several Taiwan county and city heads led delegations to visit the mainland, the Shanghai–Taipei City Forum was successfully held, and exchanges between counties, cities, and municipalities across the Strait continued to expand, with tangible results in areas such as Taiwan agricultural and fishery products entering the mainland market, youth exchanges, urban management, and grassroots governance experience-sharing.

Chen said that in the new year, they will focus on changes in the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the development of cross-Strait relations, thoroughly implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important instructions and the Party Central Committee’s decisions and deployments on Taiwan-related work, and, on the shared political basis of adhering to the “1992 Consensus” and opposing “Taiwan independence,” deepen exchanges, build consensus, consolidate mutual trust with relevant Taiwanese political parties, groups, and representative figures, and unite the broad masses of Taiwan compatriots to jointly promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and work together to advance the great cause of national reunification and national rejuvenation.

Taiwan Affairs Office: The “Mini Three Links” have transported more than 26 million passenger trips.

At the January 7 press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a reporter asked: The cross-Strait “Mini Three Links” passenger routes have now been in operation for 25 years. How do you evaluate the role the “Mini Three Links” have played in promoting cross-Strait exchanges?

In response, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said that the “Mini Three Links” routes are one of the most important and most convenient channels for exchanges between people on both sides of the Strait—especially between Fujian and Taiwan—and have played an important role in deepening cross-Strait integrated development and enhancing the well-being of compatriots on both sides.

He said that the “Mini Three Links” started with the Xiamen–Kinmen and Mawei–Matsu routes, and have now expanded to four regular routes, closely linking the Fujian coast with Kinmen and Matsu and opening up a new chapter in direct people-to-people exchanges across the Strait. At present, the “Mini Three Links” have become a “pioneering corridor” for building a “first home for Taiwan compatriots and Taiwan enterprises on the mainland,” a “golden artery” for deepening Fujian–Taiwan and broader cross-Strait economic and trade cooperation, and an “emotional bond” for promoting deeper cross-Strait integration.

So far, the “Mini Three Links” have safely transported more than 26 million passenger trips.

Chen added that with the shortest routes and the most convenient means, the “Mini Three Links” have genuinely brought the hearts of compatriots on both sides of the Strait closer together. Their successful practice vividly demonstrates that closer ties and greater intimacy are what the people on both sides desire and represent an irresistible historical trend. By winning public support and pooling collective strength, the path of cross-Strait integrated development and exchange and cooperation will only continue to broaden.

Taiwan Affairs Office: Will resolutely smash any attempt at “de jure Taiwan independence” in any form.

At the January 7 press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a reporter asked: According to Taiwanese media reports, a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislator proposed amending the current “Act Governing Relations Between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area” to define cross-Strait relations as “Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China,” and to delete the wording “before national reunification” from the original provisions. Other media reports say that the proposer has already withdrawn the bill, while the proposer himself claims that “it has not yet been formally submitted.” What is your comment?

In response, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said that they are paying close attention to these developments. He said that the proposal ignores the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan and the peace and well-being of Taiwan compatriots, openly challenges the historical and legal fact that Taiwan is part of China, and attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait in which there is only one China and both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. He said it is a naked attempt to push “legal Taiwan independence,” deliberately escalating cross-Strait tensions and undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the region. Its intentions are sinister and its nature is egregious, fully demonstrating that the Lai Ching-te authorities and the DPP are nothing less than “destroyers of peace,” “manufacturers of crises,” and “instigators of war.”

Chen said that “Taiwan independence” means war and is a dead end with no way out. He said China has full confidence and sufficient capability to smash any attempt at “legal Taiwan independence” in any form, and will never allow “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, under any name or in any way, to split Taiwan from China.

Chen added that history has already proven and will continue to prove that pursuing “Taiwan independence” separatism will never end well and will only lead to complete defeat. If “Taiwan independence” separatist forces dare to take reckless risks and cross red lines, China will, in accordance with the Anti-Secession Law, take resolute measures and deliver a head-on blow. He expressed the hope that Taiwan compatriots will clearly recognize the evil nature and grave harm of “Taiwan independence,” firmly stand on the correct side of history, resolutely oppose “Taiwan independence” separatist activities, and join together to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and protect the shared home of the Chinese nation.

Taiwan Affairs Office: The 26 “diehard Taiwan independence” elements and their accomplices who have already been announced will be punished in accordance with the law and held accountable for life.

At the January 7 press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a reporter asked: In recent years, the mainland has released several batches of lists of “diehard Taiwan independence” elements and “Taiwan independence” enforcers and accomplices. How many people are currently on each list? Will punishment be further intensified in the future to bring them to justice? Some public opinion on the island says that the mainland’s punitive measures currently have no substantive impact on these individuals. What is the spokesperson’s comment on this?

In response, Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said that “Taiwan independence” elements are criminals who split the country and undermine cross-Strait relations, and are also national traitors who seek “independence,” provoke war, and harm the interests and well-being of their compatriots. As of now, 14 “diehard Taiwan independence” elements and 12 “Taiwan independence” enforcers and accomplices have been announced.

He said that any “Taiwan independence” elements who break the law, no matter where they are, will face all necessary measures: they will be punished in accordance with the law and held accountable for life.

Creeping Closer: Timeline and Analysis of the Justice Mission-2025 Joint Exercise

Authors: Noah Reed, Ethan Connell, & Jonathan Walberg

From December 29^th to 31^st, the Eastern Theater Command (ETC) of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) held exercise “Justice Mission-2025” (正义使命-2025) in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. The drills, described by Chinese state media as a response in part to the United States’ US$11.1 billion arms package to Taiwan announced two weeks prior,[i] were the 5^th and most significant round of joint exercises around Taiwan since Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan.[ii]

While following the overall thematic and operational rhythm established in prior exercises following 2022, Justice Mission-2025 also produced several firsts. These include the closest live-fire exercise to date, and the first use of a Type 075 amphibious assault ship in a joint-exercise. The exercise also featured a notable increase in attention devoted to psychological warfare and political messaging elements.

As has been the case in all past joint exercises, Justice Mission-2025 was described first and foremost as a “Serious warning to ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatist forces and external interference” by the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Ministry of National Defense (MND). (对“台独”分裂势力与外部势力干涉的严重警告.)[iii]

Overall, Justice Mission-2025 fulfilled a dual mandate. First, it provided relevant operational experience for the PLA and China Coast Guard (CCG), something represented in the growing scale of joint-exercises since 2022 as the PLA expands in reach and scale. Second, it sent a signal of frustration over the state of cross-Strait relations to Washington, while also attempting to place the blame for the deterioration of those relations on the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party and President Lai Ching-te.

Operational Sequencing of the Exercise

Day 1 Overview: Overall, Taiwan’s MND detected 89 aircraft and 28 naval vessels, split into 15 PLAN vessels and 13 CCG vessels, operating around Taiwan during day one of the Justice Mission-2025 exercise. The day was marked by several operational themes, including:

A focus on airpower, including long-range air superiority, airspace encirclement, and airborne early warning.
A focus on sea-air coordination, especially as it relates to the detection and destruction of surface and sub-surface vessels.
A focus on the airspace and waters east of Taiwan, consistent with an overall focus on deterring “external interference.”

29 December (All Times Local)

0730-0800: Spokesperson of the ETC of the People’s Liberation Army, Senior Colonel Shi Yi, announced that it had dispatched its Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force troops to conduct joint military drills codenamed “Justice Mission 2025” in the airspace and waters surrounding Taiwan.[iv]

Alongside this announcement was the release of a navigation warning with five prohibited entry zones within which live-fire exercises would take place the following day. Later in the day, the PRC’s Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) published two additional warning zones. The ETC later added an eighth zone to the east of Taiwan over radio, although they never announced it publicly via navigational warning.

Five of the eight declared zones violated Taiwan’s territorial waters. Zone four’s boundary ran less than five nautical miles from Taiwan’s southern coast. However, at no point did Chinese vessels cross into Taiwan’s territorial waters. All Chinese vessels operated in the area between Taiwan’s contiguous and territorial waters.

Notably, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) disclosed that its intelligence agencies had noticed irregular activity and possible preparation several days prior to the start of “Justice Mission,” which contrasts with a claim by Chinese state media that the operation represented a “cold start” or “snap exercise.”[v]

0800-0930: Approximately one hour after announcing the exercise, the PLA’s ETC claimed that it had mobilized fighters, bombers, unmanned aerial vehicles, and long-range rocket units to strikes on simulated mobile ground targets in the “middle areas” of the Taiwan Strait.[vi] Taiwan’s MND did not report any rocket impacts in the Taiwan Strait during this time, and the ETC did not release footage of these strikes as it did on the next day.

0930-1130: At 1000, Taiwan’s MND released a statement condemning the exercise and announced the beginning of rapid response exercises and a state of high alert.[vii] One hour later, the ETC announced maritime live-fire training to the north and southwest of Taiwan, employing destroyers, frigates, fighters, bombers, and unmanned aerial vehicles. The training focused on hunting and neutralizing targets, simulated ground strikes, and live firing against targets.[viii]

An article in the PLA Daily newspaper published on the morning of the 30^th identified several of the ships involved in this portion of the exercise, including the Baoyi, Quzhou, and Taiyuan ship formations.[ix]

1130-1230: At 1200, the ETC announced that it had dispatched destroyers, frigates, fighters, and bombers to conduct anti-submarine and sea-air coordination exercises to the east of the Taiwan Strait.[x] The ETC released initial footage from the exercise, showcasing elements of all involved services at around this time.

On the heels of this announcement, the CCG announced that it was carrying out “comprehensive law-enforcement patrols” in waters surrounding Taiwan and the areas near the Matsu and Wuqiu islands. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) claimed that it had detected increased CCG activity several hours prior to the CCG’s official announcement.[xi]

MarineTraffic Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, which shows the last pinged location of certain vessels, confirmed this claim, as several CCG vessels, including CCG 1303 and 1302, were already observed operating north of Taiwan by 12:00.[xii] TSM researchers subsequently confirmed that CCG vessels 14609, 14606, 1302, 1306, 2203, 2204, 1303, 1303, 1302 also participated in these patrols on the 29^th.[xiii]

Poster showcasing involved CCG vessels published by China’s Coast Guard Weibo Account

1230-1630: At 1500, the ETC conducted regional patrol, information support, and aerial confrontation drills using airborne early warning aircraft, fighters, and electronic warfare aircraft to the southwest of Taiwan.[xiv] An hour later, the ETC dispatched bomber task forces to conduct far-seas combat readiness patrols east of Taiwan, focusing on long-distance joint precision strikes in remote areas.[xv]

1600-0000: At 1700, the ETC reported that a Type 075 amphibious assault ship and several accompanying vessels were operating Southeast of Taiwan. According to state media, this represented the first time the PLA had deployed a Type 075 around Taiwan during a joint exercise.[xvi]

Finally, at 2000, the ETC released footage claiming to show a TB-001 UAV from the PLA Rocket Force’s 61^st Base operating close to Taipei City near the Tamsui River outlet.[xvii] Taiwan’s MND has disputed the authenticity of the footage, reporting that no drone entered Taiwan’s airspace during the exercise.

Image circulated by PRC State Media claiming to show a UAV’s photo capture of New Taipei

30 December (All Times Local)

Day 2 Summary: Taiwan’s MND reported 71 aircraft, 17 PLAN vessels, and 15 CCG vessels around Taiwan by 1500 on day 2 of Justice Mission-2025. In addition, Taiwan detected a total of 27 rocket impacts in the waters north and south of Taiwan over this period.

The second day of the drills focused on blockade operations and targeted strikes, marking the closest live-fire drills around Taiwan on record.

0730-0800: The second day of Justice Mission-2025 began at 0800, when the ETC announced that fighters, bombers, frigates, and destroyers were conducting integrated blockade and control operations, to include identification, warning, and anti-air and submarine operations, to the north and south of Taiwan.[xviii]

0800-1200: At 0900, the ETC initiated the first of two rounds of live-fire long-range rocket drills in exercise zone 1. According to Taiwan’s MND, PHL-16 self-propelled Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems (MLRS) from the 72^nd Group Army’s Rocket Artillery Brigade in Pingtan County, Fujian, fired at least 17 rockets into this zone.[xix]

1200-0000: At approximately 1300, PHL-16 MLRS from the 73^rd Group Army’s Rocket Artillery Brigade in Shishi, Fujian, initiated a second round of live-fire long-range rocket drills. [xx] These launches targeted Zone 3 to the south of Taiwan. Taiwan’s MND reported 10 rocket impacts in the exercise. [xxi]Taiwanese media outlets reported that ten rockets from the two sets of launches landed within Taiwan’s contiguous waters zone, marking the closest ever recorded impacts during a live-fire exercise.[xxii]

The remainder of Day 2 was mostly devoted to a series of poster and video releases by the Eastern Theater Command and China Coast Guard, who continued their “comprehensive law enforcement patrols” into the second day.

31 December (All Times Local)

The ETC announced the end of the exercise at 16:00 on December 31. It is not clear why the ETC delayed announcing the end of the exercise until 31 December, as all exercise warning zones had already expired the day prior. Furthermore, MarineTraffic AIS data showed that China Coast Guard vessels had begun pulling back from the waters around Taiwan earlier in the day.[xxiii] In prior exercises, the ETC usually announced the end of exercises on the last day of heavy activity.

Notably, the ETC had released no prior exercise updates on the 31^st, and Taiwan’s MND reported only 1 aircraft violating the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over this period.[xxiv]

Justice Mission-2025’s Propaganda Dimensions

Beijing deliberately crafted the messaging and reporting surrounding Justice Mission to frame the exercise as a “stern warning” to Taipei and its international supporters. Official statements and state media reports consistently emphasized the operation as a “legitimate and necessary action” to defend the PRC’s sovereignty and promote unification.[xxv] PRC spokespeople explicitly connected the drills to Washington’s mid-December approval of a record US$11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, framing the exercise as a direct “punitive and deterrent action” in response.[xxvi] Foreign Ministry officials accused Taiwan’s ruling party of transforming the island into a “powder keg” through military expansion and arms acquisitions, cautioning that U.S. efforts to “arm Taiwan to contain China” would “only embolden the separatists and push the Taiwan Strait closer to the peril of armed conflict.”[xxvii] This external context was central to PRC rhetoric, enabling Beijing to justify the drills as compelled by hostile provocations and reinforcing its narrative that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leaders are “provocateurs” responsible for escalating tensions.

Official posters and slogans likewise adopted an overtly threatening tone, emphasizing the PLA’s capacity to isolate and strike Taiwan. PLA media accounts disseminated a series of dramatic infographics and posters suggesting that Taiwan would be defenseless in a military confrontation. For instance, one poster depicted PLA forces severing Taiwan’s supply lines, accompanied by the caption “Supply cut off – how can [you] pursue ‘independence’?” while another highlighted the “overwhelming power gap” between the PRC and Taiwan, with the challenge, “How can you seek ‘independence’ [against such odds]?”[xxviii] These visuals, often given titles like “Hammer of Justice” or “Arrow of Justice,” portrayed missiles targeting the island and blockade operations restricting access to Taiwan’s ports.[xxix]

The central message was that Beijing’s military strength serves as a tool of righteous punishment, capable of simultaneously defeating “Taiwan independence” forces and deterring external intervention from the United States. One “Arrow of Justice” poster went further by depicting a missile and volleys of arrows plunging into Taiwan itself, with lurid green “worm” figures, a common stand-in for the DPP/“Green camp,” splattered across the island, visually signaling not just blockade or deterrence but the targeted eradication of “internal” pro-independence actors. Paired with the slogan “內控外馳” (“control internally, charge outward”), the imagery suggested Beijing could simultaneously suppress “Taiwan independence” forces on the island while striking outward to deter or punish external intervention.

PRC civilian agencies also contributed to the propaganda campaign. For example, the China Coast Guard promoted its involvement in the drills through graphics of patrol ships encircling Taiwan and slogans such as “Taiwan is China’s inherent territory,” thereby reinforcing the exercise’s dual military and law-enforcement objectives in asserting sovereignty.[xxx]

Initial announcement poster for Justice Mission 2025. The poster depicts the PRC as two shields emblazoned with the Great Wall, defending Taiwan from the external influence of American arms sales and military platforms.

Official statements from Beijing’s civilian and military representatives reinforced these themes. The State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) described the Justice Mission maneuvers as a “solemn warning” to separatists and foreign actors, calling them a “necessary and just measure” to protect China’s territorial integrity.[xxxi] TAO spokespersons accused the DPP administration of “recklessly colluding with external forces” and pursuing “independence” at the expense of Taiwan’s security and welfare. They cited President Lai Ching-te’s government’s acceptance of U.S. arms and support, claiming this “militarization” was leading the island down a “dangerous path.”[xxxii] Beijing repeatedly stated that its actions targeted “Taiwan independence” elements and their supporters, not the general population. TAO officials emphasized that “people on both sides of the Strait are one family,” and that PLA operations were directed only at separatist provocations and were “not [aimed] at the Taiwan compatriots.”[xxxiii] By combining explicit threats with appeals to “Taiwanese compatriots,” the PRC’s narrative sought to weaken support for the DPP by portraying Beijing’s actions as protective and just. At the same time, severe rhetoric toward external actors, warning that any foreign interference would “dash itself to pieces against the steel Great Wall of the PLA,” highlighted the exercises’ additional audience: the United States and other regional observers.[xxxiv] Through coordinated statements and vivid propaganda, the PRC presented Justice Mission-2025 as a lawful and necessary operation to punish separatism, deter U.S. “meddling,” and position itself as the purported defender of national sovereignty and guarantor of peace in the Taiwan Strait.

Regional and US Responses

While US President Donald Trump said that he “wasn’t worried” about Justice Mission-2025,[xxxv] and that his relationship with President Xi remains strong, the State Department called for China to “cease military pressure,” and that Beijing’s actions spiked tensions. Trump’s comment was widely interpreted in divergent ways: by critics as dismissive or inattentive, and by supporters as a signal of confidence meant to convey U.S. military and political dominance. In this sense, the remark functioned less as an assessment of the exercises themselves than as a performative signal aimed at preserving maneuver space and projecting toughness. Following the conclusion of the exercises, on January 1, State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott reaffirmed the United States’ policy of supporting peace and stability across the Strait, opposing unilateral changes to the status quo.[xxxvi]

On December 30^th, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry released a similar statement, calling for “dialogue and cooperation.”[xxxvii] On December 31^st, Japan expressed concern over the exercises, with Foreign Ministry press Secretary Kitamura emphasizing that “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are important for the international community as a whole.”[xxxviii] The same day in Manila, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro expressed deep concern, adding that China’s coercion against Taiwan has implications “beyond the region” and risks stability across the continent.[xxxix] Also making statements expressing concern on New Year’s Eve were Australia and New Zealand,[xl] with Germany,[xli] the United Kingdom,[xlii] and France making announcements the day before.[xliii] Notably, Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry thanked each of these countries for their statements condemning the exercises, including Japan, but left off the United States from the message.[xliv]

Conclusion

Justice Mission–2025 underscored that Beijing is trying to institutionalize a coercive “deal” around Taiwan: headline joint exercises are increasingly treated as a conditional punishment for specific U.S. and Taiwanese actions, while day-to-day gray-zone pressure continues regardless. The exercise showed ongoing improvements in joint fires, sea–air coordination, and geographically dispersed operations, especially east of Taiwan to deter external intervention from the US. The ambiguous third day of the exercise and subdued final phase created uncertainty surrounding the intentions and overall sequence of the exercise.

The number of aircraft and naval vessels involved during the exercise naturally grew from prior iterations, as should be expected with an increasingly large and coordinated force. December 29 saw the second-largest single-day ADIZ violation by PLA aircraft on record, with the period from December 29-30 representing the largest overall violation period. Notably, the exercise did not feature an aircraft carrier, instead opting to involve a Type 075 amphibious assault vessel for the first time.

Visualization of ADIZ violations during a major exercise, via Ben Lewis and PLATracker

The exercises featured Beijing’s increasing use of coordinated propaganda, law enforcement involvement, and symbolic imagery alongside military pressure. By linking the drills to U.S. arms sales and rationalizing them as “just” and “defensive,” the PRC aimed to shift blame for escalation to Taipei and Washington while normalizing the PLA’s presence near Taiwan. Regional reactions, which were mostly expressions of concern, underscore the gap between Beijing’s claims of legitimacy and the international community’s view of destabilization. Overall, the exercise suggests that future PLA operations around Taiwan will be frequent, multi-domain, and information-driven, focusing on eroding confidence and complicating decision-making rather than preparing for immediate invasion.

[i] Global Times. ‘Justice Mission 2025’ drills serious warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and foreign interference, MND on comment drills target US arms sale to Taiwan. December 29^th, 2025. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202512/1351803.shtml

[ii] Prior joint-exercises include: 2023 ”Joint Sword”, Joint Sword 2024-A, Joint Sword 2024-B, and Strait Thunder 2025-A.

[iii] PRC Ministry of National Defense. 国防部新闻发言人张晓刚就东部战区“正义使命-2025”演习答记者问. December 29th,2025.

[iv] PRC Ministry of National Defense. 东部战区海空兵力实施环台岛战备警巡. December 29th, 2025.

[v] Guo Yuandan and Liu Xuanzun. Expert interprets PLA’s ‘Justice Mission 2025’ drill areas as media on Taiwan island describes exercises as ‘sudden’. Global Times. December 29th, 2025. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202512/1351721.shtml, Taiwan Military News Agency. 中共片面宣布軍演　國防部：綿密掌握確保國家安全. December 29^th, 2025. https://www.mnd.gov.tw/news/mnd/85591

[vi] PRC Ministry of National Defense. 东部战区位台湾海峡中部海空域开展对陆机动目标打击演练. December 29th, 2025.

[vii] ROC Ministry of National Defense. https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/2005460859901051243. December 29th, 2025.

[viii] PRC Ministry of National Defense. 东部战区位台岛北部、西南海空域开展对海实弹射击等科目训练. December 29th, 2025.

[ix] Song’s Defense Watch. https://x.com/songs349/status/2005953998604623997. December 30th, 2025., PLA Daily. 东部战区位台岛周边开展“正义使命-2025”演习. Pg 1. December 30th, 2025.

[x] PRC Ministry of National Defense. 东部战区位台岛以东海空域开展对海突击、区域制空、搜潜反潜等科目演练. December 29th, 2025.

[xi] Jaime Ocon. https://x.com/JaimeOcon1/status/2005475439108833748.December 29th, 2025.

[xii] Taiwan Security Monitor. https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2005499477323374881.December 29th, 2025.

[xiii] Taiwan Security Monitor. https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2005569169895366874. December 29th, 2025.

[xiv] PLA Eastern Theater Command Weibo. 东部战区位台岛西南空域开展区域巡逻、空中对抗、信息支援等科目演练. December 29th, 2025.

[xv] PLA Eastern Theater Command Weibo. 东部战区组织轰炸机编队赴台岛以东开展远海战备巡航. December 29th, 2025.

[xvi] Guo Yuandan and Liu Xuanzun. Type 075 amphibious assault ship joins drills surrounding Taiwan for first time. Global Times. December 29th, 2025.

[xvii] Joseph Wen. https://x.com/JosephWen___/status/2005729323593224444. December 29th, 2025., PLA Eastern Theater Command Weibo. 东部战区发布#微视频这么近那么美随时到台北#. December 29th, 2025.

[xviii] PLA Eastern Theater Command Weibo. 东部战区位台岛南北两端开展对海突击、防空反潜等科目演练. December 30th, 2025.

[xix] Joseph Wen & Taiwan Defense Studies Initiative. https://x.com/JosephWen___/status/2005661342691398111. December 29th, 2025.

[xx] Joseph Wen & Taiwan Defense Studies Initiative. https://x.com/JosephWen___/status/2005661342691398111. December 29th, 2025.

[xxi] Joseph Wen & Taiwan Defense Studies Initiative. https://x.com/JosephWen___/status/2005661342691398111. December 29th, 2025.

[xxii] Joseph Yeh. PLA rockets land inside Taiwan’s 24 nautical mile contiguous zone: MND. Focus Taiwan/CNA. December 30th, 2025.

[xxiii] Taiwan Security Monitor. https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2006216815442116690. December 30th, 2025.

[xxiv] ROC Military News Agency. 中共機艦臺海周邊活動　國軍嚴密監控應處. January 1st, 2026.https://mna.mnd.gov.tw/news/detail/?UserKey=a7500bc9-1570-4fc9-8818-8998d9b695cf

[xxv] Taiwan Security Monitor TAO Statement Tracker https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/taiwan-affairs-office-the-plas-military-operations-are-a-solemn-warning-to-taiwan-independence-separatist-forces-and-external-interference-forces/

[xxvi] Taiwan Security Monitor on X/Twitter: https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/new-arms-sales-for-taiwan-details-and-reactions/

[xxvii] Taiwan Security Monitor on X/Twitter: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/202512/t20251229_11789718.shtml

[xxviii] Taiwan Security Monitor on X/Twitter: https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2005869817232867426?s=20

[xxix] Taiwan Security Monitor on X/Twitter: https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2005807062735790564?s=20; https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2005456163249192993?s=20

[xxx] Taiwan Security Monitor on X/Twitter: https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2005521133496623314?s=20; https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2005837836851855481?s=20; https://x.com/TaiwanMonitor/status/2005569169895366874?s=20

[xxxi] Taiwan Security Monitor TAO Statement Tracker https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/taiwan-affairs-office-the-plas-military-operations-are-a-solemn-warning-to-taiwan-independence-separatist-forces-and-external-interference-forces/

[xxxii] Taiwan Security Monitor TAO Statement Tracker https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/taiwan-affairs-office-any-country-or-force-that-plays-with-fire-on-the-taiwan-question-will-inevitably-pay-a-price/; https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/taiwan-affairs-office-any-taiwan-independence-separatist-actions-will-never-be-tolerated-and-will-be-met-with-severe-punishment/

[xxxiii] Taiwan Security Monitor TAO Statement Tracker https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/taiwan-affairs-office-any-taiwan-independence-separatist-actions-will-never-be-tolerated-and-will-be-met-with-severe-punishment/

[xxxiv] Taiwan Security Monitor TAO Statement Tracker https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/taiwan-affairs-office-any-taiwan-independence-separatist-actions-will-never-be-tolerated-and-will-be-met-with-severe-punishment/

[xxxv] Ng and Ewe, “Trump Downplays Chinese Military Drills Around Taiwan” BBC, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxwxkeg9w6o

[xxxvi]US State Department on Justice Mission 2025 from CBS News: “U.S. says China’s military activities near Taiwan “increase tensions unnecessarily” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-military-activities-near-taiwan-unnecessarily-raise-tensions-us-says

[xxxvii] https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202512303004.aspx

[xxxviii] Japan Times: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/12/31/japan/china-military-exercises-taiwan-japan-europe/

[xxxix] Philippines Government Announcement: https://www.bworldonline.com/the-nation/2026/01/01/721925/philippines-concerned-over-chinas-drills-near-taiwan-says-they-undermine-regional-stability

[xl] Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Announcement: https://en.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=1329&s=121415

[xli] German Government Announcement: https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/military-exercises-china-taiwan-2750712

[xlii] United Kingdom Government Announcement: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-on-chinas-military-drills-december-2025

[xliii] French Government Announcement: https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/china/news/article/justice-mission-2025-exercises-around-taiwan-december-30-2025

[xliv]Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Announcement: https://x.com/MOFA_Taiwan/status/2006273783192297963?s=20

Visualization: Taiwan’s Energy Import and Storage Vulnerabilities

Taiwan Affairs Office: If the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces dare to take reckless risks and cross the red line, we will surely deliver a head-on, forceful blow.

A reporter asked: According to Taiwanese media reports, some DPP lawmakers have proposed amending Taiwan’s current “Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area,” defining cross-strait relations in terms of “Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China,” and deleting the wording “before national reunification” from the original provisions. What is your comment?

Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, responded: We are paying close attention to these developments. This proposal disregards the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan and the safety and well-being of Taiwan compatriots. It openly challenges the historical and legal fact that Taiwan is a part of China, and attempts to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait—namely, that there is only one China and that the mainland and Taiwan both belong to one China. It is a naked push for “de jure Taiwan independence,” a deliberate attempt to raise cross-strait tensions, and a move that undermines peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the region. Its intentions are sinister and its nature is egregious, fully demonstrating that the Lai Ching-te authorities and the DPP are, without question, “destroyers of peace,” “manufacturers of crises,” and “inciters of war.”

“Taiwan independence” means war—it is a dead end, a road to ruin. We have full confidence and sufficient capability to crush any attempt at “de jure Taiwan independence” in any form, and we will never allow “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, under any name or by any means, to split Taiwan from China!

History has already proven—and will continue to prove—that pursuing “Taiwan independence” separatism will never end well; it will only lead to total defeat. If the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces dare to take reckless risks and cross the red line, we will, in accordance with the Anti-Secession Law, take resolute measures and deliver a head-on blow. We hope the broad masses of Taiwan compatriots clearly recognize the evil nature and serious harm of “Taiwan independence,” firmly stand on the correct side of history, resolutely oppose “Taiwan independence” separatist activities, and together with us safeguard peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and protect our shared home of the Chinese nation.

Weekly PRC Media Review: 1/2/26

Author: Ethan Connell

Here’s the latest edition of the TSM PRC State Media Tracker. Each Friday, we highlight key excerpts from China’s state media organs, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of National Defense, and the Taiwan Affairs Office, all below!

Justice Mission 2025 Exercises Around Taiwan

29 December 2025

From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

CCTV Reporter: This morning, the Eastern Theater Command conducted military exercises near Taiwan Island. According to reports, these drills are a response to the United States’ recent large-scale arms sale to Taiwan totaling 11.1 billion USD. What is the spokesperson’s comment?

Lin Jian: The spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command has already released information regarding the exercises. The People’s Liberation Army’s military drills are a stern punishment for the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces who attempt to “seek independence through armed means.” They are a necessary action to safeguard China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

I want to emphasize that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities obstinately cling to a “Taiwan independence” position, attempting to “rely on the U.S. to seek independence,” and are willing to turn Taiwan into a “powder keg” and “ammunition depot.” This fully exposes their malicious nature as “destroyers of peace,” “creators of crises,” and “instigators of war.”

External forces, by “using Taiwan to contain China” and arming Taiwan, will only inflate the arrogance of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and push the Taiwan Strait toward a dangerous state of conflict.

The Taiwan question lies at the core of China’s core interests. China’s determination to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity is unwavering. Any provocative act that crosses the line on the Taiwan question will be met with a firm Chinese response, and any attempt to obstruct China’s reunification will never succeed.

From the Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

Reuters reporter: Was the trigger for China’s military exercises near Taiwan the U.S. arms sale to Taiwan worth 11.1 billion USD? And when the Eastern Theater Command referred to “external interference forces,” was it referring to the United States? (A reporter from Japan’s NHK asked a similar question.)

Lin Jian: I want to emphasize once again that China’s determination to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity is unwavering. Any egregious act of crossing the line on the Taiwan question will inevitably be met with a firm response from China.

From the Ministry of National Defense:

Reporter: On December 29, the Eastern Theater Command conducted the “Justice Mission–2025” exercise around Taiwan. Some foreign media claim the drills are a response to the United States’ recent large-scale arms sales to Taiwan. Do you have any comment?

Zhang Xiaogang: The Eastern Theater Command immediately released information on the “Justice Mission–2025” exercise. This exercise is a serious warning to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and external interference forces, and a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity.

In recent days, external forces have repeatedly crossed lines on the Taiwan question, attempting to embolden “Taiwan independence” separatists, intensify cross-strait confrontation, severely undermine China’s sovereignty and security, and gravely damage peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The Lai Ching-te authorities, meanwhile, have shamelessly aligned themselves with external forces, recklessly provoking with their pursuit of “independence,” and have become the root cause of tension and the chief source of instability in the Taiwan Strait.

“Taiwan independence” and peace in the Taiwan Strait are as incompatible as fire and water. External forces that indulge or support “Taiwan independence” will only end up burning themselves and suffering the consequences. We urge relevant countries to abandon their fantasy of “using Taiwan to contain China,” stop fueling tensions on the Taiwan question, and refrain from challenging China’s determination and resolve to defend its core interests.

We also sternly warn the DPP authorities: seeking independence by relying on external forces is doomed to fail, and resisting reunification with military force leads to a dead end. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never hesitate in combating separatism and promoting reunification. It will continue to carry out anti-secession and anti-interference operations to firmly safeguard national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.

Japanese Lawmaker to Visit Taiwan

31 December 2025

An exchange from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding a Japanese politician’s plan to visit Taiwan as proof it is an “independent country” :

Tokyo Television reporter: A Japanese House of Councillors member, Shi Ping (Hei Seki), said on social media today that he plans to visit Taiwan early next year and claimed that he has been banned from entering China. He said that if he is able to enter Taiwan, it would prove that Taiwan is an “independent country” unrelated to China. What is China’s comment on this?

Lin Jian: Such despicable remarks and behavior by a scoundrel are not worth commenting on.

Reactions to “Justice Mission 2025”

31 December 2025

A release from the Taiwan Affairs Office condemning Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and stating that recent exercises are a “solemn warning” to Taiwan:

At the December 31 press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a reporter asked for comment on the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command’s organization, starting on December 29, of forces from the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force to conduct the “Justice Mission–2025” exercise around Taiwan, which has drawn close attention on the island and caused strong reactions.

In response, Zhang Han, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said that the PLA’s relevant military actions constitute a solemn warning to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and external interference, and are a necessary and just measure to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Lai Ching-te authorities are engaging in “Taiwan independence” separatist activities, currying favor with foreign forces without principles and selling out Taiwan without limits. They are willing to sacrifice Taiwan’s economic development and people’s well-being as they recklessly rush down a misguided path of colluding with external forces to pursue “independence” provocations and militarization. This has severely damaged cross-Strait relations, gravely threatened peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and seriously harmed the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation and the vital interests of Taiwan compatriots. Any “Taiwan independence” separatist actions will never be tolerated or indulged and will be met with decisive and severe blows.

Taiwan is China’s Taiwan. Any external forces that attempt to intervene in the Taiwan question or interfere in China’s internal affairs will inevitably smash themselves against the Great Wall of steel forged by the People’s Liberation Army and suffer crushing defeat. The historical trend toward national reunification is unstoppable, and no one should underestimate our firm resolve, unwavering will, or strong capability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. These military actions are directed at “Taiwan independence” separatist activities and external interference, and are intended to deter “Taiwan independence” forces from colluding with external powers to bring turmoil to the Taiwan Strait. Their purpose is to fundamentally safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, protect the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation, and safeguard the vital interests of Taiwan compatriots. They are by no means targeted at the broad masses of Taiwan compatriots.

He expressed the hope that Taiwan compatriots will clearly recognize the extreme danger and harm of the Lai Ching-te authorities’ “Taiwan independence” separatist path, join in resolutely opposing “Taiwan independence” separatism and foreign interference, firmly safeguard the shared home of the Chinese nation, and work together to create a bright future of national reunification and national rejuvenation.

Two notes from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on diplomatic reactions to the Justice Mission 2025 exercises:

China News Service reporter: After China recently took countermeasures and punitive actions on Taiwan-related issues and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army conducted military exercises near the island of Taiwan, many countries—including Russia, Cuba, Serbia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and Pakistan—have expressed support. What is China’s comment on this?

Lin Jian: Since China announced the relevant countermeasures and carried out the related military exercises, dozens of countries have expressed support for China’s position in various forms. They have pointed out that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, that the Taiwan question is China’s internal affair, opposed any form of “Taiwan independence,” supported China’s defense of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, opposed external interference in China’s internal affairs, and stated that they will continue to abide by the one-China principle. We highly appreciate the firm support expressed by these countries for China’s position.

We would like to reiterate that China’s resolve to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity is unwavering; its resolve to defend national reunification and national interests is unwavering; and its resolve to curb “Taiwan independence” separatist forces from colluding with external forces and disrupting peace in the Taiwan Strait is unwavering. Any egregious act that crosses red lines and provokes China on the Taiwan question will be met with resolute countermeasures, and any sinister attempt to obstruct China’s reunification will not succeed.

China Central Television (CCTV) reporter: It is reported that Japan, Australia, EU institutions, and some European countries have publicly expressed concern over China’s military exercises near Taiwan. How does the spokesperson respond?

Lin Jian: These countries and institutions turn a deaf ear to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces seeking independence through force and turn a blind eye to external forces interfering in China’s internal affairs, yet they criticize China’s necessary and just actions to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. They distort facts, confuse right and wrong, and act with blatant hypocrisy. China firmly opposes this and has lodged solemn representations.

Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The Taiwan question is purely China’s internal affair and brooks no external interference. The biggest reality in the Taiwan Strait is that both sides of the Strait belong to one China, and the greatest threat to peace and stability in the Strait comes from “Taiwan independence” separatist activities and the indulgence and support they receive from external forces.

The one-China principle is a broad consensus of the international community and a fundamental norm governing international relations. It is the political foundation for China’s relations with the 183 countries with which it has diplomatic ties. Japan, Australia, and European countries made political commitments to this principle when establishing diplomatic relations with China. We strongly urge the countries and institutions concerned to strictly abide by the one-China principle, stop interfering in China’s internal affairs, and stop condoning and supporting “Taiwan independence” separatist activities.

China’s Coast Guard Activity

31 December 2025

An exchange from the Taiwan Affairs Office regarding the China Coast Guard’s execution of law enforcement patrols in the restricted waters surrounding Kinmen:

At the December 31 press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a reporter asked for comment on the mainland Coast Guard once again entering the so-called “restricted waters” near Kinmen to conduct law-enforcement patrols. Taiwan’s maritime patrol authority claimed that “the mainland Coast Guard deliberately formed up to harass vessels, disregarded navigational safety, and created significant navigation risks for passing ships.”

In response, Zhang Han, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said that both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China, and that Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu are all parts of China; therefore, there is fundamentally no such thing as so-called “restricted waters.” Claims that the mainland “disregarded the navigational safety of passing vessels” are entirely groundless.

The mainland Coast Guard’s law-enforcement patrols in the relevant waters are carried out in accordance with the law and are precisely intended to maintain normal navigation and operational order in those waters, as well as to safeguard the lives and property of fishermen on both sides of the Strait.

For a long time, the Democratic Progressive Party authorities have ignored the historical and objective facts of fishermen from both sides jointly operating in traditional fishing grounds. Their groundless detentions and even dangerous and rough treatment of mainland fishing vessels and fishermen are the real culprits creating navigation risks for passing ships and seriously threatening the lives and property of fishermen.

Taiwan Affairs Office: Any “Taiwan independence” separatist actions will never be tolerated and will be met with severe punishment.

Taiwan Affairs Office: It is hoped that Taiwan compatriots will clearly draw a line between themselves and “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and their activities.

At the December 31 press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a reporter asked for comment on recent opinion polls in Taiwan showing that more than half of respondents believe the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is “not trustworthy,” “lacks governing competence,” and is “not clean.”

In response, Zhang Han, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said that the polls reflect the strong dissatisfaction of Taiwan’s public with the DPP authorities for disregarding the interests and well-being of the people, stubbornly pursuing “independence” provocations, engaging in vicious political infighting, suppressing political opponents, and insisting on “currying favor with foreign forces and selling out Taiwan.”

He said that since Lai Ching-te took office, he has stubbornly adhered to a “Taiwan independence” separatist stance, disregarding the interests and well-being of the vast majority of Taiwan compatriots and businesses. The authorities have further intensified their obstruction and restriction of cross-Strait exchanges and cooperation, forcibly promoted economic “decoupling and supply-chain severance” across the Strait, and pursued bottomless “pro-foreign appeasement and selling out Taiwan,” allowing external forces to take whatever they want.

He added that they have squandered the hard-earned money of Taiwan’s people on the purchase of foreign weapons, used the process to line their own pockets, and engaged in corruption, pushing Taiwan toward the dangerous brink of military confrontation and conflict. He expressed hope that the broad masses of Taiwan compatriots will clearly recognize the DPP authorities’ harmful nature and ugly true face, and will consciously draw a clear line between themselves and “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and their activities.