Authors: Joe O’Connor, Shikhar Chaturvedi, Danielle Kremer, & Wyeth Lindberg
This week: Comments by President Trump after his summit with Xi casted doubt on future arms sales to Taiwan; Minister Koo reported to the LY on the special budget, and announced that some Stinger missiles would arrive in Taiwan by the end of the year; and upgraded rocket launchers and infantry fighting vehicle cannons were revealed, alongside weekly awards and solicitations.
Summit Aftermath: Arms Sales Policy in Jeopardy
President Donald Trump’s post-summit comments have created new uncertainty around the pending U.S. arms package for Taiwan, reportedly worth up to US$14 billion (NT$441.8 billion). Before the summit, Beijing publicly warned against further U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, a position consistent with TAO statements tracked in TSM’s Taiwan Affairs Office Statement Repository. After the summit, Trump said he “talked a lot about Taiwan” with Xi, made “no commitments,” and declined to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan. In a Fox News interview, Trump went further, saying the delayed package “depends on China” and calling it “a very good negotiating chip.” Trump appeared to dismiss the 1982 Six Assurances as “a far distance away,” signaled U.S. policy would oppose Taiwan independence more explicitly, and argued that Taiwan faces difficult odds because China is “very, very powerful” and geographically closer.
While the immediate risk is not a formal cancellation of U.S. arms sales policy; delays and conditionality remain a large question. That concern deepened after the Financial Times reported that Beijing is holding up a planned visit by U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby as China pressures Trump over the same US$14 billion (NT$441.8 billion) Taiwan package. Taipei has responded by emphasizing that U.S. arms sales are grounded in the Taiwan Relations Act and remain a “joint deterrence” mechanism, while President Lai Ching-te said Taiwan “will absolutely not be sacrificed or traded.” Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo also said Taiwan remains “cautiously optimistic” that U.S. arms sales will continue and that Washington’s policy remains unchanged. However, Trump has now twice said he intends to speak with Lai before deciding on the package. Such a call, if held, would be the first publicly disclosed direct call between sitting U.S. and Taiwanese presidents since 1979. This comes as TSM’s April backlog update placed the remaining backlog at US$29.72 billion, even after the final Abrams delivery reduced the topline. The Legislative Yuan’s recent authorization of dedicated U.S. arms procurement funding improves Taipei’s position, but if the next package remains delayed, Beijing will have succeeded in pushing the Taiwan arms sales issue deeper into a U.S.-China bargaining channel.
Kestrel Rocket Launcher, CM-34 Cannon Upgrades Revealed Danielle
On May 19th, Taiwan’s National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) unveiled a second-generation Kestrel rocket launcher system. This system is reportedly able to penetrate 67 cm (26.4 in.) of armor and reach targets at 500 meters, with a larger launcher tube than its previous version to accommodate the increase in rocket caliber. It is also much longer than its predecessor, spanning 124cm (4.06 ft) rather than 116cm (3.8 ft). Although this version is larger, it remains a single-use, shoulder-carried system. Another improvement NCSIST has made with this version is its 5x optical zoom sight, which features a predicted line of sight (PLOS) reticle for tracking moving targets and a heat-seeking capability within the reticle. NCSIST stated it is also developing a confined-space (CS) variant of the second-generation Kestrel with a blast suppression module to reduce backblast flame, heat, and pressure. Testing for this variant is said to be completed in the second half of this year.
Additionally, Taiwan’s domestically produced CM-34 Clouded Leopard armored vehicle is set to receive an upgraded 30 mm Mk-44 Bushmaster II cannon. This upgrade is seen as a powerful weapon against enemy drones due to its 30 mm machine gun system. Currently, the first-generation MK-44 long-barrel cannon is unable to fire airburst high-explosive rounds. The newer generation is said to address these limitations by featuring programmable, timed firing capabilities and the ability to fire air-burst high-explosive munitions (ABMs), allowing for more effective engagement of targets behind cover or in the open. The upgraded weapon will reportedly be installed on a new CM-34A1 variant built on the second-generation Clouded Leopard chassis. Taiwan’s military also plans to begin procuring hundreds of new reconnaissance vehicles and 500 “Cheetah” armored vehicles starting in 2028. The Cheetah is said to feature 105 mm low-recoil guns along with coaxial and remotely operated machine guns, with operational testing expected to conclude by the end of June.
Special Budget: Koo Reports to LY on Budget, HIMARS
Work on the special defense budget from both the Lai administration and Legislative Yuan (LY) members continued, as on Tuesday, Minister Koo and Premier Cho Jung-tai reported on the budget proposal for the first round of U.S. arms procurement, consisting of sales notified in December, including HIMARS, Paladins, and anti-armor missiles. Readers will recall that the LY approved a ceiling of NT$300 billion (US$9.5 billion) for this tranche, and Premier Cho stated to the LY that the Lai administration has formulated a total funding request of NT$294 billion (US$9.3 billion).
Koo also stated to the LY that the MND is prepared to make an initial payment of NT$800 million for HIMARS systems that is due by the end of May. If special budget funding is not appropriated by then, Koo stated that Article 84 of the Budget Act would be invoked, providing authority to make payments in emergency situations. Due to the time crunch, LY officials stated that they would expedite consideration of the budget proposal, with hearings scheduled for multiple days next week.
Koo: Stinger Missiles to Arrive by End of Year
In the same LY hearing on Tuesday, Minister Koo also told legislators that he expects 500 Stinger man-portable surface-to-air missile systems to be delivered to Taiwan by the end of this year. This is approximately 20% of the 2,621 total Stingers that are set to be delivered to Taiwan by 2031. Per Koo, the Army and Navy will both receive 250 of the initial batch of 500, with the Army receiving just under 2,000 of the remaining 2,121 missiles, the rest going to the Navy and Military Police.
These 500 Stingers appear to be across two FMS cases from 2015 and 2019 that have been repeatedly delayed, and documentation in December 2025 indicated that they were to be delivered by the end of that year, explaining why it was removed from TSM’s Taiwan Arms Sale Backlog at that time; it appears, however, that they were not delivered.
Weekly Awards / Solicitations
On Friday, dual bid solicitations and an award were made:
- The Ministry of National Defense solicited bids for the purchase of inland transportation in America of military goods purchased overseas by the ROC Military Mission to the United States. The solicitation is valued at NT$259.25 million (US$8.22 million).
- The Naval Command’s Zuoying Logistics Support Command solicited bids for the renovation of the ship repair control room at the Zuoying Naval Base, worth NT$39.28 million (US$1.25 million).
- The Information and Communications Command awarded a NT$801.49 million (US$25.37 million) contract to Dimension Computer Technology Co., Ltd for 11 items including cross-domain integrated solution software and hardware equipment. The contract is to be fulfilled nationwide.
On Tuesday, the Naval Maintenance Command solicited bids for the purchase of an open-ended maintenance contract for 29 repairable aviation parts, worth NT$235.26 million (US$7.43 million).