Author: Jaime Ocon
Welcome to the Weekly Security Review, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!
This week, President Lai urges the opposition to pass a $40B special budget, the military considers a live-fire test of ATACMS, and Chinaโs Coast Guard breaches Taiwanโs restricted waters in three separate incidents.
President Lai Holds Press Conference on Special Defense Budget
Taiwanโs President, Lai Ching-te, held a snap press conference on Wednesday, 11 February, to explain the rationale behind the countryโs record NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) supplemental defense budget. A spending package that was presented to the Legislative Yuan (LY) in December but has since been blocked more than 10 times by the opposition Taiwan Peopleโs Party (TPP) and Kuomintang (KMT). The press conference began with a plea from President Lai: โNational defense cannot wait. Our safety cannot wait. Support for our troops cannot wait.โ Lai went on to urge the public to look at what other countries are doing to ensure their security. โIndo-Pacific neighbors have also increased defense spending in reaction to Chinaโs mounting military aggressionโ Lai added, saying that โTaiwan cannot fallโ. Laiโs complete speech can be found here.
Also addressing the news conference was Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo, as well as Vice President Hsiao-Bi Khim and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Minister Koo explained that the budget delay risks a “rupture” in the joint line of defense against China. “In the Indo-Pacific region, especially among the countries in the first island chain, Taiwan plays a critical and almost destined role,” Koo said. At the press conference,Koo repeated that โTaiwan and the U.S. have continued to have intensive talks about what weapons Taiwan needs.โ
The press conference comes after months of infighting between the DPP-backed Lai administration and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan Peopleโs Party (TPP) on the passage of a record-breaking supplemental defense budget. The โSpecial Act for the Procurement Program to Strengthen Defense Resilience and Asymmetric Capabilitiesโ is worth NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) and would fund various U.S. weapon systems and equipment. A complete breakdown of approved U.S. systems can be found here.
The opposition continues to delay and oppose the bill due to a lack of oversight and reservations about handing over a โblank checkโ to President Lai. The DPP, however, says the KMT and TPPโs demands are unconstitutional, citing a prior ruling that found requiring the President to provide real-time responses to lawmakersโ questions to be unlawful. Recently, 37 U.S. senators and representatives signed a bipartisan letter, addressed to Taiwanโs opposition party leaders in the KMT and TPP, urging politicians there to sign the deal. The letter included praise for Taiwanโs recent military reforms but also worries about sustaining that momentum. “Nevertheless, we fear that without significant increases in Taiwan’s defense spending at levels reflected in President Lai’s proposed special budget, this progress will be insufficient,” the letter said. Taiwanโs parliament, meanwhile, returns from winter recess at the end of February.
Military Reportedly Prepping Rare ATACMS Live-Fire Test in Late 2026
Taiwanโs military could be gearing up to conduct a rare live-fire test of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) in the weeks following Augustโs Han Kuang military exercises, according to Liberty Times.
Every year in the summer, Taiwanโs armed forces conduct live-fire missile tests to ensure the quality of their weapons and also conduct target practice with munitions approaching their expiration date. Last May was the first time that Taiwan conducted a live-fire test of recently delivered HIMARS, firing more than 30 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) pods. Other munitions like PAC-2 interceptors, Thunderbolt-2000 MLRS rockets, and Land Sword-2 missiles were also fired.
Military officials quoted in the report say that they are looking to verify the performance of recently delivered ATACMS missiles, which can reach targets up to 300 km away. Taiwan has received the first batch of 64 ATACMS missiles in November 2024, originally from a deal notified in 2020. In December 2025, the U.S. approved an additional 420 ATACMS missiles as part of a sale of 82 additional HIMARS systems and munitions. There is, however, no contract or set delivery time for these munitions. Other systems like the Altius-700M loitering munitions might also be incorporated into the annual drill, but Taiwanโs Ministry of National Defense has yet to comment on the future tests.
TSM recently released its January Taiwan Arms Sales Backlog report, which includes a public repository of all publicly announced arms sales, including ATACMS. You can check that out here:
China Steps Up Maritime Pressure With Multiple Coast Guard Intrusions Near Taiwan
It was a busy week for Taiwanโs Coast Guard Administration (CGA) as they saw three separate incidents involving Chinese Coast Guard ships breaching restricted waters near Kinmen. The intrusions are tied for the most in a single week, involving the same Chinese ships with hull nos. 14603, 14529, 14609, and 14530. The CGA said it deployed its own vessels to shadow and intercept Chinaโs Coast Guard ships, as well as issued radio warnings. Each incident averaged roughly two hours of CCG ships breaching Kinmen’s restricted waters. This marks the seventh total incursion into Kinmenโs waters for 2026.
Taiwanโs CGA has been trying to match Chinaโs Coast Guard presence in the seas around the Taiwan Strait and has embarked on an ambitious ship-building initiative to combat Chinaโs grey-zone tactics. Also this week, Taiwan accepted delivery of its newest Anping-class offshore patrol vessel, the Lanyu (่ญๅถผ่ฆ), the 11th vessel of its type. The ship is equipped for law enforcement, firefighting, and search-and-rescue missions but can also be fitted with Hsiung Feng II and III anti-ship missiles if needed during a conflict.
By Joseph OโConnor and Eric Gomez
The first month of 2026 was relatively slow for the US arms sale backlog to Taiwan. No new Foreign Military Sales (FMS) were notified to Congress or fully delivered; the topline value of the backlog saw no change since December. Deadlock on the special defense budget in the Legislative Yuan (LY) continued, with the opposition Taiwan Peopleโs Party (TPP) submitting its own, reduced proposal. Additionally, the Department of Defense awarded a contract for the production of F-16 simulators being purchased by Taiwan.
The arms sale backlog as of January 31, 2026, remains $32.0 billion. For arms sales valued at over $1 billion, deliveries in progress are marked in yellow-orange in our visualizations, meaning that the true dollar value is lower than the topline. Figure 1 illustrates the breakdown of the backlog between asymmetric weapons, traditional weapons, and munitions. Table 1 provides an itemized list of all arms sales in the backlog, including the most up-to-date information on their status.
The MNDโs special defense budget, initially announced by President Lai in November 2025, continued its tumultuous journey through the LY in January. The administrationโs proposal, a budget of NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) to be spent over eight years, remained in the LYโs Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee. Legislators in the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan Peopleโs Party (TPP) โ which hold a combined 62 seats to the Democratic Progressive Partyโs (DPP) 51โhave prevented Laiโs budget from advancing to the full LY. On January 19, Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo delivered a closed-door, confidential briefing to the Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, but little concrete information about the budget was released.
Meanwhile, the TPP announced a counter proposal for the special defense budget, worth NT$400 billion (US$12.69 billion) on January 26 in a press conference, sending it to the LY Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee for review on January 30. This reduced budget proposal contains funding for five of the eight cases announced in December, including Paladin self-propelled howitzers, HIMARS launchers and munitions, Javelin and TOW anti-tank missiles, and ALTIUS loitering munitions, for a total of NT$311.9 billion (US$9.90 billion). The December FMS cases not funded in the TPPโs proposed budget are tactical mission networks, and spare parts for attack helicopters and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The proposal also omitted funding for local partnerships with the Taiwanese defense industrial base, including the procurement of some 200,000 drones. The NT$400 billion represents a spending ceiling, with the LY needing to vote on new funding each year until the total amount is reached. This gives the LY much more oversight power over arms sale spending, giving them multiple opportunities to pause or redirect funding if cases fall behind schedule.
Interestingly, the inclusion of the five most significant cases from December indicates an implicit desire to continue procurement of mostly asymmetric systems. The TPP proposal also includes oversight provisions, including โcomprehensive special reportsโ on case statuses over the last five years, how said procurement cases improve joint operational effectiveness, acquisition timelines, and delivery dates, and fiscal impacts. An MND press conference on 26 January refuted these oversight provisions as being time-prohibitive and having effects on the progress of backlogged cases. If passed, however, this level of oversight would provide more effective monitoring of the backlog.
After a Cabinet meeting on 15 January, Vice Minister of National Defense Hsu Szu-chien stated that four more arms sales from the US were in the pipeline, but had yet to be notified to Congress, without giving more details. As of the end of January, it is thought that additional Patriot air defense missile batteries and PAC-3 MSE missiles are one of those sales, but no details have been confirmed by the MND. This, of course, presents more opportunities for the backlog to only grow, but only after these sales have been notified to the U.S. Congress.
On 29 January, the U.S. Air Force awarded a contract definitization modification valued at US$69.88 million (using US$59.42 million of Taiwan FMS funds) for the procurement of F-16 Block 70 training simulators for the ROC Air Force. This is an extension of a contract originally awarded in January 2023 and appears to be the sixth such extension. Work under the contract is expected to be completed by August 2028, pending further contract extensions. This contract award is part of the US$8 billion F-16 Block 70 sale approved in August 2019.
A few other updates on backlogged cases emerged this month. First, after the 19 January confidential hearing, Minister Koo revealed that from the December sale, 1,554 ALTIUS-700M loitering munitions and 478 ALTIUS-600ISR drones would be procured. This case is worth US$1.1 billion, and previously, the quantity of drones was not specified. Owing to the speed of the first sale of ALTIUS being delivered to Taiwan, we expect this December case to also be fulfilled quickly.
During the month, the MND released details about production line enhancement projects set to be funded under their special defense budget proposal. Among other projects, the 202nd Factory of the MNDโs Armaments Bureau is set to increase 155mm artillery shell production. This affects the recent December sale of Paladin self-propelled howitzers, as those are the only systems in Taiwanโs inventory that would use that caliber of shell. MND sources also stated that surplus 155mm shells would be sold via a partnership with the United States.
On 21 January, the U.S. Army awarded a contract extension worth US$202.78 million (using US$52.38 million in Taiwan FMS funds) to Lockheed Martin for inspection, recertification, and repair of PAC-3 missiles, presumably including missiles in Taiwanโs possession or to be delivered to Taiwan. Similar to the above F-16 contract, this is an extension of a contract originally awarded in June 2022, and work is expected to be completed by June 2028.
January marked the continuation of ongoing budgetary battles in the LY, which have no intention of ending soon, particularly with an opposition alternative being proposed. The special defense budget debate is now the central variable: if the LY cannot reach a workable compromise soon, Taiwan risks procurement delays in the earliest phases of an FMS case. The budget drama also sends mixed signals to allies and adversaries of Taiwan on its willingness to provide for its own defense. However, the TPPโs emphasis on greater transparency and oversight would be welcome for providing more information about how arms sale cases are progressingโor stalling.
