Taiwan Security Monitor

Author: Chris Dayton

Visualization: 9/5/25 Taiwan Strait Transit

Authors: Joe O’Connor, Chris Dayton

Our visualization of the northbound Taiwan Strait transit undertaken on 9/5 by HMCS Ville de Québec (FFH-332) and HMAS Brisbane (DDG-41). Track is approximate, based on Marine Traffic AIS data & public reporting.

Visualization: New Type-12 and HVGP Missile Deployment Locations

Author: Chris Dayton

Research: Ethan Connell

On August 29, Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced the deployment locations of improved Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles, as well as their Hyper Velocity Glide Projectiles (HVGP). Below is a TSM map showcasing those locations and the maximum range of those missiles.

Visualization: Map of Scarborough Shoal Collision and Nearby Naval Activity

Authors: Chris Dayton, Ethan Connell

On August 11, 2025, a PLAN destroyer and a China Coast Guard cutter collided with each other in the waters around Scarborough Shoal during a close-quarters pursuit of a Philippine government vessel.

Above is a visualization highlighting the reported collision site and the floating barrier at the shoal, along with USS Higgins’ approximate 8/12/2025 position and estimated track derived from public AIS data.

Visualization: Han Kuang 41 Major Exercise Location Heat Map

Author: Chris Dayton

Where did Taiwan’s military place the greatest emphasis during 2025’s Han Kuang exercise? TSM created a heatmap to find out! It highlights the distribution and relative frequency of major exercises that occurred across Taiwan, including the outlying islands and Penghu.

Visualization: Han Kuang 41 Major Exercise Locations

Author: Chris Dayton

Above is TSM’s poster breaking down Han Kuang 41! It contains the location and category of major exercises that occurred all over Taiwan, including the outlying islands and Penghu. We’ve mapped every disclosed and geolocated exercise, starting from mobilizations on the 7th.

Visualization: Map of Taiwan’s Reserve Command Districts and Bases

Author: Chris Dayton

Above is a map of Taiwan’s Reserve Command Districts and Bases, created in anticipation of HK 41 exercises.

Visualization: Map of Territories and Claims in the Spratly Islands

Authors: Chris Dayton, Ethan Connell

The PLA’s Southern Theater Command recently undertook live-fire exercises to the north of the Spratly Islands, which they claim under their Nine-Dash Line.

Above is our visualization of the administration of those features along with China’s claims, highlighting a May 21st incident in which a China Coast Guard ship sideswiped and water-cannoned a Philippine government vessel in the waters around Sandy Cay.

Visualization: Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

Author: Chris Dayton

Often forgotten in contemporary discussions of Taiwan’s security is the 1995/96 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis.

This cycle of escalation lasted from July of 1995 to March of 1996, involving live fire drills, missile launches, and massive amphibious exercises.

Above is our visualization of the different stages of the crisis, beginning with the PRC’s backlash to then Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the United States, and ending with the PRC’s pressure campaign leading up to the 1996 Taiwanese Election.

Visualization: Japan’s Lower Island Evacuation Strategy

Author: Ian Struble, Chris Dayton

Research: Olivianna Watkins, Graham Coughlan

In March, the Japanese government announced plans to evacuate up to 120,000 civilians from the Sakishima Islands, part of Okinawa Prefecture, in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

This map is a visualization of those plans, showing the impacted islands and evacuation routes.

Visualization: AFP Northern Luzon Facilities and Deployments

Author: Chris Dayton, Ian Struble, Ethan Connell

As Balikatan 2025 continues, AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner recently underscored the “inevitability” of Philippine involvement in a Taiwan conflict, citing 250,000 overseas Filipino workers in Taiwan.

The Northern Luzon Command’s strategic position is pivotal, as joint drills with the US intensify near the Bashi Channel and Luzon Strait.

This map contains all deployed unit land facilities, relevant airfields, and naval bases/facilities.