Author: Jaime Ocon
Happy New Year! Welcome to the first Weekly Security Review of 2026, where we highlight key military, security, and political developments around Taiwan in one straightforward summary!
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This week, an F-16 pilot is feared dead after crashing into the sea during a routine nighttime training. The National Security Bureau revealed more information regarding the recently concluded Justice Mission-2025 exercise, the PLA conducted its first “Joint Combat Readiness Patrol” of 2026, and several China Coast Guard vessels briefly entered Kinmen’s restricted waters.
Military “Not Losing Hope” as Search Continues After F-16V Crash
An ROCAF F-16V, serial no. 6700 of the 5th Tactical Fighter Wing in Hualien, crashed into the waters east of Taiwan during a routine nighttime training exercise late on Tuesday (6 January). The military is still unaware whether or not the pilot, Captain Hsin Po-yi (辛柏毅), ejected from the aircraft, despite noticing he was “preparing to eject, eject, eject”. The Air Force lost radar contact with the fighter jet at 1928, and no transponder signal from an ejection seat has been found.
Coast Guard personnel conduct nighttime search and rescue operations
Rescue efforts have been slowly expanding as Army and National Airborne Service Corps Black Hawk helicopters conduct frequent low-altitude search flights over waters off Taitung and Hualien. Meanwhile, vessels from the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) continue 24/7 search-and-rescue operations. As of 9 a.m. Friday (9 January), the Navy and CGA dispatched a total of 22 vessels, involving roughly 300 ground personnel and 30 aircraft sorties, including 2 UAVs. Taiwan’s fleet of F-16s was grounded for inspection following the crash, but is now back in service.
A press conference from the Air Force revealed that audio logs indicate the pilot lost contact with his formation at 1927 after flying into clouds. Flight conditions showed visibility at 9km, with light rain. Capt. Hsin then reported that his altitude was continuing to drop and that he would eject from his aircraft. That was roughly eight seconds before its radar signal vanished at an altitude of 1700ft and roughly 36 nautical miles (66.6 kilometers) south of Hualien Air Force Base.
Local media have speculated that an engine may have exploded, citing nearby dashcam footage that appears to show a fireball descending in the vicinity of the crash site. Others have suggested a possible software issue involving the aircraft’s Modular Mission Computer (MMC). The military has not yet identified the cause and says it is conducting a full investigation.
Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo oversees search and rescue efforts for a missing F-16V pilot
In response to Tuesday’s crash, Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo announced that the Air Force would move quickly to install Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance Systems (Auto-GCAS) on all of its F-16V jets by next year. Taiwan has the largest fleet of F-16s deployed in Asia, with 141 upgraded F-16A/Bs and 66 newer F-16V Block 70s expected to arrive starting this year. Tuesday’s incident is the latest in a series of unfortunate training accidents that have not only resulted in lost aircraft but have also taken the lives of a handful of armed service members. Below is a list of recent F-16 accidents:
- August 1999: Aircraft suffers a likely mechanical failure during training, the pilot ejects safely, and the jet crashes.
- March 2008: Aircraft crashes into the sea during a nighttime training mission near Hualien; pilot Ting Shih-pao (丁世寶) is later formally declared dead.
- May 2013: Aircraft crashes into the sea near Chiayi during a training mission; the pilot ejects safely, and the jet crashes.
- January 2016: Pilot Kao Ting-cheng (高鼎程) killed in a crash during a training exercise at Luke Air Force Base in the United States.
- June 2018: Aircraft crashes into Wufen Mountain in Keelung City during Han Kuang military exercises, pilot Wu Yen-ting killed.
- November 2020: Aircraft disappears from radar shortly after takeoff from Hualien Air Base, pilot Chiang Cheng-chih (蔣正志) later formally declared dead.
- January 2022: Aircraft crashes into the sea during a ground-attack training mission at Shuixi Shooting Range near Chiayi Air Base, pilot Andy Chen (陳奕) killed.
NSB Report of China’s “Justice Mission-2025”
On 8 January, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) submitted a report and testified to the Legislative Yuan regarding China’s recent JusticeMission-2025 military exercises. The full public report can be found here: NSB Report, Justice-Mission 2025
In short, the NSB told lawmakers that China’s “Justice Mission-2025” drills were intended to counter growing international support for Taiwan and possibly distract from Beijing’s economic difficulties. The exercises involved dozens of rocket launches and a large-scale deployment of warships and aircraft, disrupting Taiwan’s air traffic and raising concerns among regional and Western partners. The drills were among the most expansive to date in terms of geographic coverage and were intended to advance a political goal of pushing back against support from democratic countries. The NSB said that Beijing wanted to redirect domestic discontent in China into nationalist sentiment under the banner of “resisting external interference.”
Legislators in the LY question Defense and National Security officials
In the report, the NSB also highlighted that recent statements by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including concerns that an attack on Taiwan could constitute an existential threat to Japan, could have added to Beijing’s efforts to reassert its claims in the region.
The report described China’s heavy use of information operations and cyber activity during the drills, ranging from state-media narratives and AI-generated content to coordinated “troll armies.” The NSB said these networks produced more than 19,000 inflammatory posts from nearly 800 accounts over five days, aiming to erode confidence in Taiwan’s military and sow doubt about U.S. support. It also reported more than two million cyberattacks on government systems in the first two days of the exercises, and identified PLA-linked groups, such as APT24 and BlackTech, as key actors.
According to the NSB, Beijing is increasingly synchronizing cyber operations with military exercises to weaken public morale and degrade Taiwan’s information environment by amplifying fear and uncertainty.
China’s First Joint Combat Readiness Patrol of 2026
Also on 8 January, the MND reported the 1st PLA Joint Combat Readiness Patrol of 2026. Starting from 1456, a total of 21 PLAAF aircraft, including J-10 fighters, H-6K bombers, KJ-500 early warning aircraft, and UAVs, were detected operating around Taiwan. 19 of the aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Taiwan’s military added that these aircraft operated in coordination with Chinese naval vessels and harassed Taiwan’s surrounding air and maritime areas.
Taiwan’s military said it employed joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance measures to maintain close oversight of the situation and dispatched aircraft, naval vessels, and land-based missile systems as a response. Both in 2024 and 2025, the PLA conducted 40 combat readiness patrols, typically taking place every other week.
Earlier in 2025, an intelligence officer explained that the phrase “Joint Combat Readiness Patrol” (聯合戰備警巡) is used by the MND to signal a difference from the PLA’s routine patrols around Taiwan. Colonel Hu Zhong-hua, deputy director of the MND’s Intelligence Research Center, said the ministry defines Joint Combat Readiness Patrols as PLA joint training that involves coordinated activities from both sea and air forces, and is derived from gathering years of PLA behavior and patterns.
China Coast Guard Incursion into Kinmen’s Restricted Waters
Finally, this week also marked the year’s first incursion by China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels into the restricted waters surrounding the outlying island of Kinmen. Four CCG vessels were detected by Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) at 1400 local on 6 December. These vessels entered Kinmen’s restricted waters at 1510 before exiting two hours later at 1712.
Taiwan’s CGA deployed its own vessels to conduct parallel shadowing throughout the incursion, which it condemned as an instance of Beijing’s strategy of gray-zone harassment towards Taiwan.
